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Did the U.S. Really Grow Out of Its World War II Debt?

Author

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  • Mr. Julien Acalin
  • Laurence M. Ball

Abstract

The fall in the U.S. public debt/GDP ratio from 106% in 1946 to 23% in 1974 is often attributed to high rates of economic growth. This paper examines the roles of three other factors: primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged interest rates before the Fed-Treasury Accord of 1951. Our central result is a simulation of the path that the debt/GDP ratio would have followed with primary budget balance and without the distortions in real interest rates caused by surprise inflation and the pre-Accord peg. In this counterfactual, debt/GDP declines only to 74% in 1974, not 23% as in actual history. Moreover, the ratio starts rising again in 1980 and in 2022 it is 84%. These findings imply that, over the last 76 years, only a small amount of debt reduction has been achieved through growth rates that exceed undistorted interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Julien Acalin & Laurence M. Ball, 2024. "Did the U.S. Really Grow Out of Its World War II Debt?," IMF Working Papers 2024/005, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/005
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    Keywords

    U.S. Public Debt; Financial Repression; Surprise Inflation; r-g; GDP ratio; World War II debt; GDP path; inflation expectation; Inflation; Real interest rates; Fiscal stance; Interest payments; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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