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Demand vs. Supply Decomposition of Inflation: Cross-Country Evidence with Applications

Author

Listed:
  • Melih Firat
  • Otso Hao

Abstract

What are the contributions of demand and supply factors to inflation? To address this question, we follow Shapiro (2022) and construct quarterly demand-driven and supply-driven inflation series for 32 countries utilizing sectoral Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data. We highlight global trends and country-specific differences in inflation decompositions during critical periods such as the great financial crisis of 2008 and the recent inflation surge since 2021. Validating our inflation series, we find that supply-driven inflation is more reactive to oil shocks and supply chain pressures, while demand-driven inflation displays a more pronounced response to monetary policy shocks. Our results also suggest a steeper Phillips curve when inflation is demand-driven, holding significant implications for effective policy design.

Suggested Citation

  • Melih Firat & Otso Hao, 2023. "Demand vs. Supply Decomposition of Inflation: Cross-Country Evidence with Applications," IMF Working Papers 2023/205, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/205
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Pragyan Deb & Julia Estefania-Flores & Melih Firat & Davide Furceri & Siddharth Kothari, 2023. "Monetary Policy Transmission Heterogeneity: Cross-Country Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2023/204, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Donni F. Anugrah & Danny Hermawan & Denny Lie & Solikin M. Juhro & Misbahol Yaqin, 2023. "Policy Mix: Supply-Side Policies To Address The Trend Of Rising Inflation," Working Papers WP/11/2023, Bank Indonesia.
    3. Shibanov, O., 2024. "Lessons for the central banks: Inflation in 2021-2023," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 240-245.
    4. Martin Schneider, 2024. "What contributes to consumer price inflation? A novel decomposition framework with an application to Austria (Martin Schneider)," Working Papers 255, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).

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