IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2022-065.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What Drives Mortgage Default Risk in Europe and the U.S.?

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Marco Gross
  • Mr. Thierry Tressel
  • Xiaodan Ding
  • Eugen Tereanu

Abstract

We present an analysis of the sensitivity of household mortgage probabilities of default (PDs) and loss given default (LGDs) on unemployment rates, house price growth, interest rates, and other drivers. A structural micro-macro simulation model is used to that end. It is anchored in the balance sheets and income-expense flow data from about 95,000 households and 230,000 household members from 21 EU countries and the U.S. We present country-specific nonlinear regressions based on the structural model simulation-implied relation between PDs and LGDs and their drivers. These can be used for macro scenario-conditional forecasting, without requiring the conduct of the micro simulation. We also present a policy counterfactual analysis of the responsiveness of mortgage PDs, LGDs, and bank capitalization conditional on adverse scenarios related to the COVID-19 pandemic across all countries. The economics of debt moratoria and guarantees are discussed against the background of the model-based analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Marco Gross & Mr. Thierry Tressel & Xiaodan Ding & Eugen Tereanu, 2022. "What Drives Mortgage Default Risk in Europe and the U.S.?," IMF Working Papers 2022/065, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/065
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=515963
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adhikari, Tamanna & Yao, Fang, 2023. "Household resilience to expenditure and debt service channels under current inflationary conditions," Financial Stability Notes 3/FS/23, Central Bank of Ireland.
    2. Giannoulakis, Stelios & Forletta, Marco & Gross, Marco & Tereanu, Eugen, 2023. "The effectiveness of borrower-based macroprudential policies: a cross-country analysis using an integrated micro-macro simulation model," Working Paper Series 2795, European Central Bank.
    3. Billio, Monica & Dufour, Alfonso & Segato, Samuele & Varotto, Simone, 2023. "Complexity and the default risk of mortgage-backed securities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/065. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.