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Uncertainty and Public Investment Multipliers: The Role of Economic Confidence

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  • William Gbohoui

Abstract

This paper investigates how macroeconomic uncertainty affects the fiscal multiplier of public investment. In theory, uncertainty can reduce the multiplier if the private sector becomes more cautious and does not respond to the fiscal stimulus. Conversely, it can increase the fiscal multiplier if public investment shocks improve private agents’ expectations about future economic outlook, and lead to larger private spending. Using the disagreement about GDP forecasts as a proxy for uncertainty, we find that unexpected increases in public investment have larger and longer-lasting effects on output, investment, and employment during periods of high uncertainty, with multipliers above 2, and the larger multipliers are not driven by economic slack. Public investment shocks are also found to boost private sector confidence during heightened uncertainty, driving-up expectations about future economic development which in turn magnify private sector response to the initial stimulus.

Suggested Citation

  • William Gbohoui, 2021. "Uncertainty and Public Investment Multipliers: The Role of Economic Confidence," IMF Working Papers 2021/272, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/272
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    Cited by:

    1. António Afonso & Eduardo Rodrigues, 2024. "Is public investment in construction and in R&D, growth enhancing? A PVAR approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(24), pages 2875-2899, May.
    2. Jalles, João Tovar & Park , Donghyun & Qureshi, Irfan, 2024. "Public versus Private Investment Multipliers in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Cross-Country Analysis with a Focus on Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 737, Asian Development Bank.
    3. Elisabetta Cappa & Francesco Lamperti & Gianluca Pallante, 2024. "Creating Jobs Out of the Green: The Employment Effects of the Energy Transition," LEM Papers Series 2024/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

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