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Commercial Real Estate and Macrofinancial Stability During COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Deghi
  • Mr. Junghwan Mok
  • Tomohiro Tsuruga

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic crisis has severely shocked the commercial real estate (CRE) sector, which could have important implications for macro-financial stability going forward because of the large size of the sector and its strong interconnectedness with the real economy. Using a novel methodology, this paper quantifies vulnerabilities in the CRE sector and analyzes policy tools available to mitigate related risks. The analysis shows that CRE prices were overvalued in several major advanced economies in 2020:Q1. It also shows that such price misalignments increase the likelihood of future price corrections and exacerbate downside risks to future GDP growth. While the path of recovery in the sector will depend inherently on the pace of overall economic recovery and the structural shifts induced by the pandemic, easy financial conditions may contribute to an increase in financial vulnerabilities and persistent price misalignment. Macroprudential policy can, however, be effective in curbing the financial stability risks posed by the CRE sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Deghi & Mr. Junghwan Mok & Tomohiro Tsuruga, 2021. "Commercial Real Estate and Macrofinancial Stability During COVID-19," IMF Working Papers 2021/264, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/264
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    Cited by:

    1. Merten, Laura & Kuhnimhof, Tobias, 2023. "Impacts of parking and accessibility on retail-oriented city centres," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    2. David Liebeg & Maximilian Liegler, 2022. "Systemic risks of commercial real estate funding in Austria," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 44, pages 45-67.

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