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Supply and Demand Effects of Unemployment Insurance Benefit Extensions: Evidence from U.S. Counties

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  • Klaus-Peter Hellwig

Abstract

I use three decades of county-level data to estimate the effects of federal unemployment benefit extensions on economic activity. To overcome the reverse causality coming from the fact that benefit extensions are a function of state unemployment rates, I only use the within-state variation in outcomes to identify treatment effects. Identification rests on a differences-in-differences approach which exploits heterogeneity in county exposure to policy changes. To distinguish demand and supply-side channels, I estimate the model separately for tradable and non-tradable sectors. Finally I use benefit extensions as an instrument to estimate local fiscal multipliers of unemployment benefit transfers. I find (i) that the overall impact of benefit extensions on activity is positive, pointing to strong demand effects; (ii) that, even in tradable sectors, there are no negative supply-side effects from work disincentives; and (iii) a fiscal multiplier estimate of 1.92, similar to estimates in the literature for other types of spending.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus-Peter Hellwig, 2021. "Supply and Demand Effects of Unemployment Insurance Benefit Extensions: Evidence from U.S. Counties," IMF Working Papers 2021/070, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/070
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Hornstein & Marios Karabarbounis & Andre Kurmann & Etienne Lale & Lien Ta, 2023. "Disincentive Effects of Unemployment Insurance Benefits," Working Paper 23-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    2. Cseres-Gergely, Zsombor & Kecht, Valentin & Le Blanc, Julia & Onorante, Luca, 2024. "The economic impact of general vs. targeted lockdowns: New insights from Italian municipalities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

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