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Social Repercussions of Pandemics

Author

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  • Mr. Philip Barrett
  • Sophia Chen

Abstract

Epidemics may have social scarring effects, increasing the likelihood of social unrest. They may also have mitigating effect, suppressing unrest by dissuading social activities. Using a new monthly panel on social unrest in 130 countries, we find a positive cross-sectional relationship between social unrest and epidemics. But the relationship reverses in the short run, implying that the mitigating effect dominates in the short run. Recent trends in social unrest immediately before and after the COVID-19 outbreak are consistent with this historic evidence. It is reasonable to expect that, as the pandemic fades, unrest may reemerge in locations where it previously existed.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Philip Barrett & Sophia Chen, 2021. "Social Repercussions of Pandemics," IMF Working Papers 2021/021, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/021
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hadzi-Vaskov Metodij & Pienknagura Samuel & Ricci Luca Antonio, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Social Unrest," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 917-958, June.
    2. Christian P Pinshi, 2021. "Vue d’ensemble de la COVID-19 : De la définition aux effets spillovers macroéconomiques," Working Papers hal-03139785, HAL.
    3. Jedwab, Remi & Khan, Amjad M. & Russ, Jason & Zaveri, Esha D., 2021. "Epidemics, pandemics, and social conflict: Lessons from the past and possible scenarios for COVID-19," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    4. Philip Barrett & Mariia Bondar & Sophia Chen & Mali Chivakul & Deniz Igan, 2024. "Pricing protest: the response of financial markets to social unrest," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(4), pages 1419-1450.
    5. Samuel R. Friedman & Ashly E. Jordan & David C. Perlman & Georgios K. Nikolopoulos & Pedro Mateu-Gelabert, 2022. "Emerging Zoonotic Infections, Social Processes and Their Measurement and Enhanced Surveillance to Improve Zoonotic Epidemic Responses: A “Big Events” Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(2), pages 1-11, January.
    6. Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak & Edward Miguel, 2022. "The Economics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Poor Countries," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 253-285, August.
    7. Ozili, Peterson K, 2025. "Country-wide protests and financial stability," MPRA Paper 123300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Barrett, Philip & Appendino, Maximiliano & Nguyen, Kate & de Leon Miranda, Jorge, 2022. "Measuring social unrest using media reports," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

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