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Modeling Trade Tensions: Different Mechanisms in General Equilibrium

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Benjamin L Hunt
  • Susanna Mursula
  • Mr. Rafael A Portillo
  • Marika Santoro

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the mechanisms through which import tariffs impact the macroeconomy in two large scale workhorse models used for quantitative policy analysis: a computational general equilibrium (CGE) model (Purdue University GTAP model) and a multi-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model (IMF GIMF model). The quantitative effects of an increase in tariffs reflect different mechanisms at work. Like other models in the trade literature, in GTAP higher tariffs generate a loss in terms of output arising from an inefficient reallocation of resources between sectors. In GIMF instead, as in other DSGE models, tariffs act as a disincentive to factor utilization. We show that the two models/channels can be broadly interpreted as capturing the impact of tariffs on different components of a country’s aggregate production function: aggregate productivity (GTAP) and factor supply/utilization (GIMF). We discuss ways to combine the estimates from these two models to provide a more complete assessment of the macro effects of tariffs.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Benjamin L Hunt & Susanna Mursula & Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Marika Santoro, 2020. "Modeling Trade Tensions: Different Mechanisms in General Equilibrium," IMF Working Papers 2020/279, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/279
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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=49869
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    Cited by:

    1. Daragh Clancy & Donal Smith & Vilém Valenta, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Global Supply Chain Reorientation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(2), pages 151-191, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade policy; trade elasticity; Nominal and real rigidities; general equilibrium;
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