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Exiting from Lockdowns: Early Evidence from Reopenings in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Jeffrey R. Franks
  • Bertrand Gruss
  • Mr. Carlos Mulas-Granados
  • Manasa Patnam
  • Mr. Sebastian Weber

Abstract

European authorities introduced stringent lockdown measures in early 2020 to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. As the first wave of infection curves flattened and the outbreak appeared controlled, most countries started to reopen their economies albeit using diverse strategies. This paper introduces a novel daily database of sectoral reopening measures in Europe during the first-wave and documents that country plans differed significantly in terms of timing, pace, and sequencing of sectoral reopening measures. We then show that reopenings led to a recovery in mobility—a proxy for economic activity—but at the cost of somewhat higher infections. However, the experience with reopening reveals some original dimensions of this trade-off. First, the increase in COVID-19 infections after reopening appears less severe in fatality rates. Second, a given reopening step is associated with a worse reinfection outcome in countries that started reopening earlier on the infection curve or that opened all sectors at a fast pace in a relatively short time. Finally, while opening measures tend to have an amplification effect on subsequent cases when a large fraction of the economy is already open, this effect appears heterogenous across sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jeffrey R. Franks & Bertrand Gruss & Mr. Carlos Mulas-Granados & Manasa Patnam & Mr. Sebastian Weber, 2020. "Exiting from Lockdowns: Early Evidence from Reopenings in Europe," IMF Working Papers 2020/218, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/218
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ángel Luis Gómez & Ana del Río, 2021. "El impacto desigual de la crisis sanitaria sobre las economías del área del euro en 2020," Occasional Papers 2115, Banco de España.
    2. Davide Furceri & Siddharth Kothari & Longmei Zhang, 2021. "The effects of COVID‐19 containment measures on the Asia‐Pacific region," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 469-497, October.
    3. Ángel Luis Gómez & Ana del Río, 2021. "The uneven impact of the health crisis on the euro area economies in 2020," Occasional Papers 2115, Banco de España.
    4. Merkaj, Elvina & Santolini, Raffaella, 2022. "Italian national policies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: The case of the Friuli-Venezia-Giulia and Umbria Regions," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(4), pages 287-293.
    5. Sapir, J., 2021. "Is Eurozone accumulating a historic lag toward Asia in the COVID-19 context?," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 192-203.
    6. Elvina Merkaj & Raffaella Santolini, 2021. "National Policies In Response To The Covid-19 Pandemic: The Case Of Friuli-Venezia-Giulia And Umbria," Working Papers 456, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.

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