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A Framework for Estimating Health Spending in Response to COVID-19

Author

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  • Mr. Paolo Dudine
  • Klaus-Peter Hellwig
  • Samir Jahan

Abstract

We estimate the additional health spending necessary to treat COVID-19 patients. We expand a Susceptible Infected Recovered model to project the number of people requiring hospitalization, use information about healthcare costs by country, and make assumptions about capacity constraints in the health sector. Without social distancing and lockdowns, countries would need to expand health systems ten-fold, on average, to assist all COVID-19 patients in need of hospitalization. Under capacity constraints, effective social distancing and quarantine reduce the additional health spending from a range of $0.6–1 trillion globally to $130–231 billion, and the fatality rate from 1.2 to 0.2 percent, on average.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Paolo Dudine & Klaus-Peter Hellwig & Samir Jahan, 2020. "A Framework for Estimating Health Spending in Response to COVID-19," IMF Working Papers 2020/145, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/145
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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=49550
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    Cited by:

    1. Julio Emilio Marco-Franco & Pedro Pita-Barros & Silvia González-de-Julián & Iryna Sabat & David Vivas-Consuelo, 2021. "Simplified Mathematical Modelling of Uncertainty: Cost-Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines in Spain," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-15, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; health sector; health system; reproduction number; fatality rate; cost parameter;
    All these keywords.

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