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Systemic Risk Modeling: How Theory Can Meet Statistics

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  • Mr. Raphael A Espinoza
  • Miguel A. Segoviano
  • Ji Yan

Abstract

We propose a framework to link empirical models of systemic risk to theoretical network/ general equilibrium models used to understand the channels of transmission of systemic risk. The theoretical model allows for systemic risk due to interbank counterparty risk, common asset exposures/fire sales, and a “Minsky" cycle of optimism. The empirical model uses stock market and CDS spreads data to estimate a multivariate density of equity returns and to compute the expected equity return for each bank, conditional on a bad macro-outcome. Theses “cross-sectional" moments are used to re-calibrate the theoretical model and estimate the importance of the Minsky cycle of optimism in driving systemic risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Miguel A. Segoviano & Ji Yan, 2020. "Systemic Risk Modeling: How Theory Can Meet Statistics," IMF Working Papers 2020/054, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/054
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hyman P. Minsky, 1977. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis: An Interpretation of Keynes and an Alternative to“Standard” Theory," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 20-27, March.
    2. Zineddine Alla & Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Qiaoluan H. Li & Miguel A. Segoviano, 2018. "Macroprudential Stress Tests: A Reduced-Form Approach to Quantifying Systemic Risk Losses," IMF Working Papers 2018/049, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2005. "A risk assessment model for banks," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 197-224, September.
    4. Mr. C. A. E. Goodhart & Miguel A. Segoviano, 2009. "Banking Stability Measures," IMF Working Papers 2009/004, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    6. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Hyun Song Shin & Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2005. "Liquidity Risk and Contagion," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 556-566, 04/05.
    7. Segoviano, Miguel A. & Goodhart, Charles, 2009. "Banking stability measures," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24416, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Rama Cont & Eric Schaanning, 2017. "Fire sales, indirect contagion and systemic stress testing," Working Paper 2017/2, Norges Bank.
    9. Segoviano, Miguel A., 2006. "Consistent information multivariate density optimizing methodology," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24511, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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