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U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to GCC Countries: Do Oil Prices Matter?

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  • Mr. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji
  • Mr. Erik Roos
  • Mr. Sohaib Shahid
  • Ling Zhu

Abstract

This paper provides empirical evidence that the size of the spillovers from U.S. monetary policy to non-oil GDP growth in the GCC countries depends on the level of oil prices. The potential channels through which oil prices could affect the effectiveness of monetary policy are discussed. We find that the level of oil prices tends to dampen or amplify the growth impact of changes in U.S. monetary policy on the non-oil economies in the GCC.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji & Mr. Erik Roos & Mr. Sohaib Shahid & Ling Zhu, 2019. "U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to GCC Countries: Do Oil Prices Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2019/304, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/304
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 423-438, August.
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    3. Mr. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji & Mr. Sohaib Shahid & Ling Zhu, 2018. "Saudi’s Growth and Financial Spillovers to Other GCC Countries: An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2018/278, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Kwapil, Claudia & Scharler, Johann, 2010. "Interest rate pass-through, monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 236-251, March.
    5. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 57-94, April.
    6. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2004. "Monetary Sovereignty, Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: The Trilemma in the Interwar Period," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(s1), pages 75-108, June.
    7. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Garima Vasishtha, 2014. "The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies," Staff Working Papers 14-53, Bank of Canada.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hashed Mabkhot & Hamid Abdulkhaleq Hasan Al-Wesabi, 2022. "Banks’ Financial Stability and Macroeconomic Key Factors in GCC Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-21, November.

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