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Debt Build-up in Frontier Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) since 2012: Global or Country-specific Factors and Way Forward?

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  • Constance de Soyres
  • Anna Rogantini Picco
  • Miss Randa Sab

Abstract

This paper focuses on the debt build-up that frontier low-income developing countries (LIDCs) have faced since 2012. First, it documents a 20-percentage point increase in the external and government debt-to-GDP ratios, a composition shift toward higher non-concessional debt, and a rise in interest rate payments. Second, using panel regressions, it shows that while both global and country-specific factors are correlated with debt-to-GDP ratios over 1998–2016, global factors dominate for the period 2012–16. Third, through a small open-economy model, it shows that the projected tightening in global financial conditions would reduce debt-to-GDP ratios by less than the increase associated with the expected rise in investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Constance de Soyres & Anna Rogantini Picco & Miss Randa Sab, 2019. "Debt Build-up in Frontier Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) since 2012: Global or Country-specific Factors and Way Forward?," IMF Working Papers 2019/037, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/037
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    Cited by:

    1. Fisera, Boris & Workie Tiruneh, Menbere & Hojdan, David, 2021. "Currency depreciations in emerging economies: A blessing or a curse for external debt management?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 132-165.
    2. Felix Fofana N¡¯Zue, 2020. "Is External Debt Hampering Growth in the ECOWAS Region?," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(4), pages 1-54, April.
    3. Daxin Dong, 2021. "The impact of financial openness on public debt in developing countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2261-2291, May.

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