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Assessing Loss of Market Access: Conceptual and Operational Issues

Author

Listed:
  • Ms. Anastasia Guscina
  • Sheheryar Malik
  • Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou

Abstract

Loss of market access (LMA) is a central element and an exacerbator of balance of payments and fiscal crises. This paper provides an operational definition of LMA, examines the predictive power of potential LMA leading indicators, attempts to determine the likely nature (temporary versus structural) of an LMA episode, and analyzes potential implications of such an assessment on the required degree of adjustment to restore market access. Finally, it highlights the possible application of the methodological framework for identifying emerging risks to market access.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Anastasia Guscina & Sheheryar Malik & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou, 2017. "Assessing Loss of Market Access: Conceptual and Operational Issues," IMF Working Papers 2017/246, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2017/246
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Aitor Erce & Xu Jiang & Diana Zigraiova, 2020. "Quantifying Risks to Sovereign Market Access: Methods and Challenges," Globalization Institute Working Papers 377, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Thordur Jonasson & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou, 2018. "A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks," IMF Working Papers 2018/074, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Moreno Badia, Marialuz & Medas, Paulo & Gupta, Pranav & Xiang, Yuan, 2022. "Debt is not free," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Mitali Das, 2023. "Probabilistic assessment of external sustainability in Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 22(1), pages 5-29, January.
    5. Rho, Caterina & Saenz, Manrique, 2021. "Financial stress and the probability of sovereign default," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).

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