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Potential Growth in Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Sergi Lanau
  • Mr. Jorge Roldos
  • Jose Daniel Rodríguez-Delgado

Abstract

This paper uses a multivariate filter and a production function to project potential growth in Colombia, modeling in detail the impact of low oil prices on investment. The framework also captures the impact of current and planned policies on potential growth, including the peace agreement with the FARC, the tax reform, and 4G infrastructure projects. The analysis suggests the growth acceleration of the 2000s is unlikely to repeat itself in a world of lower oil prices. Potential growth is likely to moderate to a range of 2.8 to 4.1 percent. The 4G infrastructure projects and the tax reform will increase investment, partly offsetting the sharp decline in oil investment. Improvements in productivity are essential to lift potential growth, as the large increases in the labor force observed in the last 15 years are unlikely to continue.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Sergi Lanau & Mr. Jorge Roldos & Jose Daniel Rodríguez-Delgado, 2017. "Potential Growth in Colombia," IMF Working Papers 2017/238, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2017/238
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ricardo Najarro Chuchón, 2021. "Estimación del PBI potencial para los países de la Alianza del Pacífico:1961-2020," Revista de Análisis Económico y Financiero, Universidad de San Martín de Porres, vol. 4(01), pages 15-18.
    2. Franz Hamann & Fernando Arias-Rodríguez & Jesus Bejarano & Margarita Gafaro & Juan C. Mendez-Vizcaino & Andrea Paola Poveda-Olarte, 2019. "Productividad total de los factores y eficiencia en el uso de los recursos productivos en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, issue 89, pages 1-54, February.

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