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The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile, Colombia, and Peru

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  • Mr. Francisco Roch

Abstract

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the macroeconomic adjustment in Chile, Colombia, and Peru to commodity terms-of-trade shocks. The study is done in two steps: (i) an analysis of the impulse responses of key macroeconomic variables to terms-of-trade shocks and (ii) an event study of the adjustment to the recent decline in commodity prices. The experiences of these countries highlight the importance of flexible exchange rates to help with the adjustment to lower commodity prices, and staying vigilant in addressing depreciation pressures on inflation through tightening monetary policies. On the fiscal front, evidence shows that greater fiscal space, like in Chile and Peru, gives more room for accommodating terms-of-trade shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Francisco Roch, 2017. "The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile, Colombia, and Peru," IMF Working Papers 2017/208, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2017/208
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gondo, Rocío & Pérez, Fernando, 2018. "The Transmission of Exogenous Commodity and Oil Prices shocks to Latin America - A Panel VAR approach," Working Papers 2018-012, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    2. M. Tiunova G. & М. Тиунова Г., 2018. "Влияние Внешних Шоков На Российскую Экономику // The Impact Of External Shocks On The Russian Economy," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 22(4), pages 146-170.
    3. Emiliano Toni & Pablo Paniagua & Patricio 'Ordenes, 2024. "Policy Changes and Growth Slowdown: Assessing the Lost Decade of the Latin American Miracle," Papers 2407.02003, arXiv.org.
    4. Ivan Trofimov, 2021. "Income terms of trade and economic convergence: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 46(2), pages 41-67, June.
    5. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2018. "Income terms of trade and economic convergence: Evidence from Latin America," MPRA Paper 87598, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Christian Balcells, 2022. "Determinants of firm boundaries and organizational performance: an empirical investigation of the Chilean truck market," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 423-461, April.
    7. José Franco Iparraguirre & Fernando Cuyutupac Borja, 2020. "Impacto de los factores externos en el Producto Bruto Interno Peruano durante 1994-2018," Revista de Análisis Económico y Financiero, Universidad de San Martín de Porres, vol. 2(01), pages 64-75.

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