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IMF Lending in an Interconnected World

Author

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  • Jean-Guillaume Poulain
  • Julien Reynaud

Abstract

We analyze the determinants of IMF lending since the early nineties, a period during which the roles of financial cycles and interconnectedness as amplifiers and transmitters of economic crises have gained prominence. First, we show that the global financial cycle is an important driver of IMF lending cycles. Second, using a panel of 91 advanced, emerging, and frontier economies over 1992-2014, we show that global factors and interconnectedness, as proxied by a countries’ potential exposure to economic spillovers from trade partners, together with more traditional idiosyncratic factors, have a significant impact on the probability that a member country obtains financial assistance from the IMF. Our results are robust to various robustness checks. The approach presented in this paper can be used to assess future demand for IMF financial assistance.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Guillaume Poulain & Julien Reynaud, 2017. "IMF Lending in an Interconnected World," IMF Working Papers 2017/155, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2017/155
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kurowski, Łukasz & Rogowicz, Karol, 2018. "Are business and credit cycles synchronised internally or externally?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 124-141.
    2. Martin Iseringhausen & Ms. Mwanza Nkusu & Wellian Wiranto, 2019. "Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting," IMF Working Papers 2019/245, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Caselli, Francesca & Reynaud, Julien, 2020. "Do fiscal rules cause better fiscal balances? A new instrumental variable strategy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Jost, Thomas & Seitz, Franz, 2021. "Designing a European Monetary Fund: What role for the IMF?," IMFS Working Paper Series 151, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    5. Scheubel, Beatrice & Stracca, Livio & Tille, Cédric, 2019. "Taming the global financial cycle: What role for the global financial safety net?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 160-182.

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