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Monetary Policy Transmission in the GCC Countries

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  • Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad
  • Mr. Raphael A Espinoza

Abstract

The GCC countries maintain a policy of open capital accounts and a pegged (or nearly-pegged) exchange rate, thereby reducing their freedom to run an independent monetary policy. This paper shows, however, that the pass-through of policy rates to retail rates is on the low side, reflecting the shallowness of money markets and the manner in which GCC central banks operate. In addition to policy rates, the GCC monetary authorities use reserve requirements, loan-to-deposit ratios, and other macroprudential tools to affect liquidity and credit. Nonetheless, a panel vector auto regression model suggests that U.S. monetary policy has a strong and statistically significant impact on broad money, non-oil activity, and inflation in the GCC region. Unanticipated shocks to broad money also affect prices but do not stimulate growth. Continued efforts to develop the domestic financial markets will increase interest rate pass-through and strengthen monetary policy transmission.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad & Mr. Raphael A Espinoza, 2012. "Monetary Policy Transmission in the GCC Countries," IMF Working Papers 2012/132, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/132
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    2. Serhan Cevik & Katerina Teksoz, 2013. "Lost in Transmission? The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in the GCC Countries," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 1350018-131, January.
    3. Kishan Abeygunawardana & Chandranath Amarasekara & C. D. Tilakaratne, 2017. "Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 18(1), pages 21-38, March.
    4. Ms. Ritu Basu & Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad & Mr. Sergio L. Rodriguez, 2015. "Monetary Operations and Islamic Banking in the GCC: Challenges and Options," IMF Working Papers 2015/234, International Monetary Fund.
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    7. Ali Termos & Ismail Genc & George Naufal, 2016. "A Tacit Monetary Policy of the Gulf Countries: Is There a Remittances Channel?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 599-610, May.
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    9. Abdullah M. H. Alharbi, 2023. "Oil Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Stock Returns: A Case of Oil-based Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(6), pages 56-63, November.
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    11. Mr. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji & Yacoub Alatrash & Mr. Divya Kirti, 2019. "How Do Changing U.S. Interest Rates Affect Banks in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries?," IMF Working Papers 2019/268, International Monetary Fund.
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    13. Eita, Joel Hinaunye & Pedro, Marcio Jose, 2020. "Modelling total factor productivity in a developing economy: evidence from Angola," MPRA Paper 101304, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Apr 2020.
    14. Haddou, Samira, 2022. "International financial stress spillovers to bank lending: Do internal characteristics matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    15. Adebayo Augustine Kutu & Harold Ngalawa, 2016. "Monetary Policy Shocks And Industrial Output In Brics Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(3), pages 3-24, July-Sept.
    16. Abouwafia, Hashem E. & Chambers, Marcus J., 2015. "Monetary policy, exchange rates and stock prices in the Middle East region," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 14-28.
    17. Alsamara, Mouyad & Mrabet, Zouhair & Dombrecht, Michel, 2018. "Asymmetric import cost pass-through in GCC countries: Evidence from nonlinear panel analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 432-440.
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