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How Commodity Price Curves and Inventories React to a Short-Run Scarcity Shock

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  • Ms. Nese Erbil
  • Mr. Shaun K. Roache

Abstract

How does a commodity market adjust to a temporary scarcity shock which causes a shift in the slope of the futures price curve? We find long-run relationships between spot and futures prices, inventories and interest rates, which means that such shocks lead to an adjustment back towards a stable equilibrium. We find evidence that the adjustment is somewhat consistent with well-known theoretical models, such as Pindyck (2001); in other words, spot prices rise and then fall, while inventories are used to absorb the shock. Importantly, the pace and nature of the adjustment depends upon whether inventories were initially high or low, which introduces significant nonlinearities into the adjustment process.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Nese Erbil & Mr. Shaun K. Roache, 2010. "How Commodity Price Curves and Inventories React to a Short-Run Scarcity Shock," IMF Working Papers 2010/222, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/222
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wu, Yangru & Zhang, Hua, 1997. "Do Interest Rates Follow Unit-Root Processes? Evidence from Cross-Maturity Treasury Bill Yields," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 69-81, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. David A Reichsfeld & Mr. Shaun K. Roache, 2011. "Do Commodity Futures Help Forecast Spot Prices?," IMF Working Papers 2011/254, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Sugaipov, Deni, 2022. "Estimating the impact of terms of trade news shocks on the Russian economy," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 66, pages 39-67.
    3. Zaremba, Adam & Bianchi, Robert J. & Mikutowski, Mateusz, 2021. "Long-run reversal in commodity returns: Insights from seven centuries of evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Ben Zeev, Nadav & Pappa, Evi & Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2017. "Emerging economies business cycles: The role of commodity terms of trade news," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 368-376.
    5. Steven J. Cochran & Iqbal Mansur & Babatunde Odusami, 2016. "Conditional higher order moments in metal asset returns," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 151-167, January.

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    Keywords

    WP; interest rate;

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