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Fiscal Vulnerability and Sustainability in Oil-Producing Sub-Saharan African Countries

Author

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  • Zaijin Zhan
  • Mr. Robert C York

Abstract

Over many years rises and fall of world oil prices have been repeatedly reflected in the boom-bust cycles in oil-exporting countries the world over. The recent spectacular rise and equally spectacular fall in prices provides an opportunity to inquire whether anything is different this time. In this paper we limit the analysis to the experience, outlook, and longterm fiscal policy considerations for eight of the world's oil-producing countries in sub- Saharan Africa. Because we are interested in gauging their fiscal vulnerability and sustainability from the angle of managing exhaustible oil wealth, we focus on the non-oil primary balance as the relevant indicator of how initial conditions and resource endowments can influence long-term considerations in several different models of fiscal rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Zaijin Zhan & Mr. Robert C York, 2009. "Fiscal Vulnerability and Sustainability in Oil-Producing Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 2009/174, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/174
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    Cited by:

    1. Geis, André & Chauvin, Sophie, 2011. "Who has been affected, how and why? The spillover of the global financial crisis to Sub-Saharan Africa and ways to recovery," Occasional Paper Series 124, European Central Bank.
    2. DRAMA Bedi Guy Herve & Yao Kouadio Ange-Patrick, 2018. "Oil Price, Budget Deficit, Money Supply and Inflation in WAEMU Countries," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(3), pages 317-326, September.
    3. Andreea STOIAN, 2011. "A Retrospective Approach on Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability: Empirical Evidence for Overindebted European Countries," Timisoara Journal of Economics, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 4(3(15)), pages 183-188.
    4. Rolando Ossowski & Havard Halland, 2016. "Fiscal Management in Resource-Rich Countries," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 24577.
    5. Mr. Gaston K Mpatswe & Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba & Mr. Robert C York, 2011. "The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policies in the CEMAC Region," IMF Working Papers 2011/205, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Mr. Plamen K Iossifov & Ms. Misa Takebe & Zaijin Zhan & Mr. Noriaki Kinoshita & Mr. Robert C York, 2009. "Improving Surveillance Across the CEMAC Region," IMF Working Papers 2009/260, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; oil price; price; government; revenue;
    All these keywords.

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