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The Equity Premium Puzzle, Ambiguity Aversion, and Institutional Quality

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  • Mr. Abbas Mirakhor
  • Mr. S. Nuri Erbas

Abstract

With cross-section data from 53 emerging and mature markets, we provide evidence that equity premium puzzle is a global phenomenon. In addition to risk aversion, equity premium may reflect ambiguity aversion. We explore the sources of equity premium using some pertinent fundamental independent variables, as well as the World Bank institutional quality indexes and other proxies for the degree of ambiguity in the sample countries. Some World Bank and other indexes are statistically significant, which indicates that a large part of equity premium may reflect investor aversion to ambiguities resulting from institutional weaknesses.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Abbas Mirakhor & Mr. S. Nuri Erbas, 2007. "The Equity Premium Puzzle, Ambiguity Aversion, and Institutional Quality," IMF Working Papers 2007/230, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/230
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    Cited by:

    1. Mirakhor, Abbas, 2010. "Whither Islamic Finance? Risk Sharing in An Age of Crises," MPRA Paper 56341, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Shakill Hassan & Andrew Van Biljon, 2010. "The Equity Premium And Risk‐Free Rate Puzzles In A Turbulent Economy: Evidence From 105 Years Of Data From South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(1), pages 23-39, March.
    3. Gong, Di & Jiang, Tao & Li, Zhao & Wu, Weixing, 2022. "Optimal loan contracting under policy uncertainty: Theory and international evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. van Ewijk, Casper & de Groot, Henri L.F. & Santing, A.J. (Coos), 2012. "A meta-analysis of the equity premium," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 819-830.
    5. Chen, Daniel L. & Schonger, Martin, 2016. "Testing axiomatizations of ambiguity aversion," TSE Working Papers 16-717, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    6. Rieger, Marc Oliver & Wang, Mei, 2012. "Can ambiguity aversion solve the equity premium puzzle? Survey evidence from international data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 63-72.
    7. Isaac Kleshchelski & Nicolas Vincent, 2007. "Robust Equilibrium Yield Curves," Cahiers de recherche 08-02, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
    8. Hossein Askari & Abbas Mirakhor, 2014. "Risk sharing, public policy and the contribution of Islamic finance," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 67(271), pages 345-379.
    9. Yehuda Izhakian, 2012. "Ambiguity Measurement," Working Papers 12-01, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    10. Nahil Boussiga & Ezzeddine Abaoub, 2015. "How Does Government Policy Affect Equity Risk Premium?," Journal of Applied Management and Investments, Department of Business Administration and Corporate Security, International Humanitarian University, vol. 4(2), pages 65-75.
    11. He, Ying & Dyer, James S. & Butler, John C. & Jia, Jianmin, 2019. "An additive model of decision making under risk and ambiguity," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 78-92.
    12. Alonso, Irasema & Prado, Mauricio, 2015. "Ambiguity aversion, asset prices, and the welfare costs of aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 78-92.
    13. Mirakhor , Abbas & Shaukat , Mughees, 2012. "Survival of the Interest Rate Based Debt Financing System," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 6(4), pages 1-26, July.
    14. Muhammad Imran & Mengyun Wu & Shuibin Gu & Shah Saud & Muhammad Abbas, 2019. "Influence of economic and non-economic factors on firm level equity premium: Evidence from Pakistan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(3), pages 1774-1785.
    15. Raj Aggarwal & John Goodell, 2011. "Variations in emerging-market equity premia: impact of financial architecture," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 313-330.
    16. Mirakhor, Abbas, 2007. "Islamic Finance and Globalization: A Convergence?," MPRA Paper 56026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Shaukat, Mughees & Othman Alhabshi, Datuk, 2015. "Instability of Interest Bearing Debt Finance and the Islamic Finance Alternative By Mughees Shaukat & Datuk Othman Alhabshi," Islamic Economic Studies, The Islamic Research and Training Institute (IRTI), vol. 23, pages 29-84.
    18. Aggarwal, Raj & Goodell, John W., 2011. "International variations in expected equity premia: Role of financial architecture and governance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3090-3100, November.
    19. Bellelah, M.A. & Bellelah, M.O. & Ben Ameur, H. & Ben Hafsia, R., 2017. "Does the equity premium puzzle persist during financial crisis? The case of the French equity market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 851-866.

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