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The Pricing of Credit Default Swaps During Distress

Author

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  • Mr. Manmohan Singh
  • Mr. Jochen R. Andritzky

Abstract

Credit default swaps (CDS) provide the buyer with insurance against certain types of credit events by entitling him to exchange any of the bonds permitted as deliverable against their par value. Unlike bonds, whose risk spreads are assumed to be the product of default risk and loss rate, CDS are par instruments, and their spreads reflect the partial recovery of the delivered bond's face value. This paper addresses the implications of the difference between bond and CDS spreads and shows the extent to which the recovery assumption matters for determining CDS spreads. A no-arbitrage argument is applied to extract recovery rates from CDS and bond markets, using data from Brazil's distress in 2002-03. Results are related to the observation that preemptive restructurings are now more common than straight defaults in sovereign bond markets and that this leads to a decoupling of CDS and bond spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Manmohan Singh & Mr. Jochen R. Andritzky, 2006. "The Pricing of Credit Default Swaps During Distress," IMF Working Papers 2006/254, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/254
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frank X. Zhang, 2003. "What did the credit market expect of Argentina default? Evidence from default swap data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Darrell Duffie, 1999. "Credit Swap Valuation," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 73-87, January.
    3. Didier Cossin & Tomas Hricko & Daniel Aunon-Nerin & Zhijiang Huang, 2002. "Exploring for the Determinants of Credit Risk in Credit Default Swap Transaction Data: Is Fixed-Income Markets’ Information Suffcient to Evaluate Credit Risk?," FAME Research Paper Series rp65, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    4. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
    5. Franck Packer & Haibin Zhu, 2005. "Contractual terms and CDS pricing," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    6. Frank Packer & Chamaree Suthiphongchai, 2003. "Sovereign credit default swaps," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    7. Mr. Amadou N Sy & Mr. Andrea Pescatori, 2004. "Debt Crises and the Development of International Capital Markets," IMF Working Papers 2004/044, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chamon, Marcos & Schumacher, Julian & Trebesch, Christoph, 2018. "Foreign-Law Bonds: Can They Reduce Sovereign Borrowing Costs?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 114, pages 164-179.
    2. William Arrata & Alejandro Bernales & Virginie Coudert, 2013. "The effects of Derivatives on Underlying Financial Markets: Equity Options, Commodity Futures and Credit Default Swaps," Post-Print hal-01410748, HAL.
    3. Kargi, Bilal, 2014. "Credit Default Swap (CDS) Spreads: The Analysis of Time Series for The Integration with The Interest Rates and The Growth in Turkish Economy," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 59-66.
    4. Christian Capuano, 2008. "The Option-iPoD," IMF Working Papers 2008/194, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Christoph Trebesch & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou & Mr. Udaibir S Das, 2012. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010: Literature Survey, Data, and Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 2012/203, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Rahmi Erdem Aktug & Geraldo Vasconcellos & Youngsoo Bae, 2012. "The dynamics of sovereign credit default swap and bond markets: empirical evidence from the 2001 to 2007 period," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 251-259, February.
    7. Viviana Costa & Maria Alberta Oliveira & Carlos Santos, 2024. "Assessing the Pandemic Aviation Crisis: Speculative Behavior, Government Bail Outs, and Accommodative Monetary Policy," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-24, September.
    8. Michael Adler & Jeong Song, 2010. "The behavior of emerging market sovereigns' credit default swap premiums and bond yield spreads," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 31-58.
    9. Virginie Coudert & Mathieu Gex, 2013. "The Interactions between the Credit Default Swap and the Bond Markets in Financial Turmoil," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 492-505, August.
    10. Ammer, John & Cai, Fang, 2011. "Sovereign CDS and bond pricing dynamics in emerging markets: Does the cheapest-to-deliver option matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 369-387, July.
    11. Christoph Trebesch, 2009. "The Cost of Aggressive Sovereign Debt Policies: How Much is theprivate Sector Affected?," IMF Working Papers 2009/029, International Monetary Fund.

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