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Weathering the Storm So Far: The Impact of the 2003–05 Oil Shock on Low-Income Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Helaway Tadesse
  • Mr. Mark W Lewis
  • Jörg Zeuner
  • Mr. James A John
  • Luzmaria Monasi
  • Mr. Paolo Dudine

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the 2003-05 oil price increase on the balance of payments positions and IMF financing needs of low-income country oil importers. It finds that stronger exports reflecting favorable global conditions, a compression of oil import volumes due to the pass-through of world prices to domestic consumers, and a large increase in capital inflows helped low-income countries cope with the oil price shock. Preliminary data suggest that reductions in oil import volumes have not harmed growth. While fiscal balances generally improved, quasi-fiscal liabilities may be building. Lower demand for IMF assistance may reflect broader trends, but further oil price increases could put pressure on additional countries in 2006 and beyond.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Helaway Tadesse & Mr. Mark W Lewis & Jörg Zeuner & Mr. James A John & Luzmaria Monasi & Mr. Paolo Dudine, 2006. "Weathering the Storm So Far: The Impact of the 2003–05 Oil Shock on Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2006/171, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/171
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Thomas William Dorsey & Ms. Zuzana Brixiova & Sukhwinder Singh & Mr. Helaway Tadesse, 2008. "The Landscape of Capital Flows to Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2008/051, International Monetary Fund.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Morocco: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/110, International Monetary Fund.

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