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The Role of Interest Rates in Business Cycle Fluctuations in Emerging Market Countries: The Case of Thailand

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  • Mr. Ivan Tchakarov
  • Mr. Selim A Elekdag

Abstract

Emerging market countries have enjoyed an exceptionally favorable economic environment throughout 2004, 2005, and early 2006. In particular, accommodative U.S. monetary policy in recent years has helped create an environment of low interest rates in international capital markets. However, if world interest rates were to take a sudden upward course, this would lead to less hospitable financing conditions for emerging market countries. The purpose of this paper is to measure the effects of world interest rate shocks on real activity in Thailand. The analysis incorporates balance sheet related credit market frictions into the IMF’s Global Economy Model (GEM) and finds that Thailand would best minimize the adverse effects of rising world interest rates if it were to follow a flexible exchange rate regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Ivan Tchakarov & Mr. Selim A Elekdag, 2006. "The Role of Interest Rates in Business Cycle Fluctuations in Emerging Market Countries: The Case of Thailand," IMF Working Papers 2006/110, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/110
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William R. Cline, 1995. "International Debt Reexamined," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 46, April.
    2. Selim Elekdag & Alejandro Justiniano & Ivan Tchakarov, 2006. "An Estimated Small Open Economy Model of the Financial Accelerator," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(2), pages 1-2.
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    7. Mr. Selim A Elekdag & Mr. Ivan Tchakarov, 2004. "Balance Sheets, Exchange Rate Policy, and Welfare," IMF Working Papers 2004/063, International Monetary Fund.
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    10. Mr. Alejandro Justiniano Espigares & Mr. Selim A Elekdag & Mr. Ivan Tchakarov, 2005. "An Estimated Small Open Economy Model of the Financial Accelerator," IMF Working Papers 2005/044, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Taiyo Yoshimi, 2014. "Lending Rate Spread Shock and Monetary Policy Arrangements: A Small Open Economy Model for ASEAN Countries," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 19-39, March.

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