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Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Brazil

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  • Ms. Agnes A Belaisch

Abstract

In the last two years the real has undergone a large depreciation and the central bank has missed its inflation target in 2002 for the second year in a row. Inflation, however, has increased much less than the rate of currency depreciation and the pickup in inflation in the last quarter of 2002 raises the question of whether the exchange rate passthrough has finally risen. This paper argues that the passthrough in Brazil has fallen compared with estimates in other studies on earlier time periods, and remains low when compared with the passthrough in other Latin American countries. Indeed the passthrough is more comparable with that of G-7 countries—although in Brazil the effect on prices appears to be faster.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Agnes A Belaisch, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Brazil," IMF Working Papers 2003/141, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2003/141
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    Cited by:

    1. Rucha R. Ranadive & L.G. Burange, 2015. "Transmission Mechanism of Exchange Rate Pass-through in India," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 50(4), pages 263-283, November.
    2. Nogueira, Veridiana de Andrade & Mori, Rogério & Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2013. "Transmissão da variação cambial para as taxas de inflação no Brasil: estimação do pass-through através de modelos de vetores autorregressivos estruturais com correção de erros," Textos para discussão 349, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    3. Eliane Cristina de Araújo, 2011. "Volatilidade Cambial e Crescimento Econômico: Teorias e Evidências para Economias em Desenvolvimento e Emergentes (1980 e 2007)," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 12(2), pages 187-213.
    4. Georgy Idrisov, 2010. "Factors of Demand for Imported Goods for Investment Purpose to Russia," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 138P.
    5. Irineu De Carvalho Filho & Marcos Chamon, 2008. "A Micro-Empirical Foundation for the Political Economy of Exchange Rate Populism," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(3), pages 481-510, July.
    6. Fabrizio Almeida Marodin & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2019. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Brazil: À Markov Switching DSGE Estimation for the Inflation Targeting Period," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(1), pages 36-66, March.
    7. Sergio A. L. Alves & Waldyr D. Areosa, 2005. "Targets and Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers Series 100, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    8. Minella, André & Souza-Sobrinho, Nelson F., 2013. "Monetary policy channels in Brazil through the lens of a semi-structural model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 405-419.
    9. Brière, Marie & Signori, Ombretta, 2013. "Hedging inflation risk in a developing economy: The case of Brazil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 209-222.
    10. Federico Marongiu, 2004. "Devaluación e Inflacion en Argentina despues de la Convertibilidad," Macroeconomics 0404013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. R. Barıs Tekin & M. Ege Yazgan, 2009. "Exchange rate pass-through in Turkish export and import prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(17), pages 2221-2228.
    12. Martín Tobal & Renato Yslas, 2018. "Two Models of FX Market Interventions: The Cases of Brazil and Mexico," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Alberto Ortiz-Bolaños (ed.), Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in Latin America and the Caribbean, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 221-257, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    13. Daniel Gersten Reiss, 2015. "Invoice currency: Puzzling evidence and new questions from Brazil," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 16(2), pages 206-225.
    14. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Paraguay: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2010/170, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Carlos da Silva & Matías Vernengo, 2008. "The Decline of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Brazil: Explaining the "Fear of Floating"," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(4), pages 64-79.
    16. Andreas Bachmann, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through to various price indices: empirical estimation using vector error correction models," Diskussionsschriften dp1205, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    17. Rafael Martins de Souza & Luiz Felipe Pires Maciel & Adrian Pizzinga, 2013. "State space models for the exchange rate pass-through: determinants and null/full pass-through hypotheses," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(36), pages 5062-5075, December.
    18. Atif Ali Jaffri, 2010. "Exchange Rate Pass-through to Consumer Prices in Pakistan: Does Misalignment Matter?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(1), pages 19-35.
    19. Alexander F. Tieman, 2004. "Interest Rate Pass-Through in Romania and Other Central European Economies," IMF Working Papers 2004/211, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Mrs. Esther Perez Ruiz, 2016. "Outside the Band: Depreciation and Inflation Dynamics in Chile," IMF Working Papers 2016/129, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Ghosh, Amit, 2013. "Exchange rate pass through, macro fundamentals and regime choice in Latin America," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 163-171.
    22. Chatri, Abdellatif & Maarouf, Abdelwahab & Ragbi, Aziz, 2016. "Pass-through du taux de change aux prix au Maroc [An empirical investigation of the exchange rate pass-through to prices in Morocco]," MPRA Paper 71757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Korishchenko, Konstantin (Корищенко, Константин) & Pilnik, Nikolay (Пильник, Николай) & Ivanova, Maria (Иванова, Мария), 2018. "Identifying the Main Determinants of Consumer Price Growth in the Russian Economy Under the Inflation Targeting Policy [Выявление Основных Детерминант Роста Потребительских Цен В Российской Экономи," Working Papers 041834, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    24. Luis Fernando Escobar Patiño & Pablo Hernán Mendieta Ossio, 2006. "Inflación y depreciación en una economía dolarizada: el caso de Bolivia," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 1-39, enero-mar.
    25. Martins Bitans, 2004. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates to Domestic Prices in East European Countries and the Role of Economic Enviroment," Working Papers 2004/04, Latvijas Banka.

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