IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2003-023.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Analysis of the Underground Economy and its Macroeconomic Consequences

Author

Listed:
  • Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
  • Mr. Andrew Feltenstein

Abstract

This paper develops a dynamic computable general equilibrium model in which optimizing agents evade taxes by operating in the underground economy. The cost to firms of evading taxes is that they find themselves subject to credit rationing from banks. Our model simulations show that in the absence of budgetary flexibility to adjust expenditures, raising tax rates too high drives firms into the underground economy, thereby reducing the tax base. Aggregate investment in the economy is lowered because of credit rationing. Taxes that are too low eliminate the underground economy, but result in unsustainable budget and trade deficits. Thus, the optimal rate of taxation, from a macroeconomic point of view, may lead to some underground activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Mr. Andrew Feltenstein, 2003. "An Analysis of the Underground Economy and its Macroeconomic Consequences," IMF Working Papers 2003/023, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2003/023
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=16274
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ball, Sheryl & Feltenstein, Andrew, 2001. "Bank failures and fiscal austerity: policy prescriptions for a developing country," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 247-270, November.
    2. Burgess, Robin & Stern, Nicholas, 1993. "Taxation and Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 762-830, June.
    3. Blejer, Mario I. & Feldman, Ernesto V. & Feltenstein, Andrew, 2002. "Exogenous shocks, contagion, and bank soundness: a macroeconomic framework," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 33-52, February.
    4. Loayza, Norman V., 1996. "The economics of the informal sector: a simple model and some empirical evidence from Latin America," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-162, December.
    5. Feltenstein, Andrew & Shah, Anwar, 1993. "General Equilibrium Effects of Taxation on Investment in a Developing Country: The Case of Pakistan," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 48(3), pages 366-386.
    6. Simon Johnson & Daniel Kaufman & Andrei Shleifer, 1997. "The Unofficial Economy in Transition," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(2), pages 159-240.
    7. Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G., 2000. "Informality and rent-seeking bureaucracies in a model of long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 173-197, August.
    8. Mehnaz Ahmed & Qazi Masood Ahmed, 1995. "Estimation of the Black Economy of Pakistan through the Monetary Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 791-807.
    9. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Slim, Sadri, 2015. "Un modelo Mundell-Fleming con economía ilegal y lavado de dinero [Modeling illegal economy and money laundering: a Mundell-Fleming framework]," MPRA Paper 64675, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Damir Piplica, 2011. "Corruption And Inflation In Transition Eu Member Countries," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 20(2), pages 469-506, december.
    3. M. Ali Kemal, 2007. "A Fresh Assessment of the Underground Economy and Tax Evasion in Pakistan : Causes, Consequences, and Linkages with the Formal Economy," Microeconomics Working Papers 22200, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    4. Folorunsho Monsuru Ajide & James Temitope Dada & Johnson Kolawole Olowookere, 2022. "Shadow economy and foreign direct investment in Nigerian manufacturing industry," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 23(2), pages 156-180.
    5. Dario Cziraky & Max Gillman, 2004. "Inflation and Endogenous Growth in Underground Economies," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 50, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    6. Era Dabla-Norris & Mark Gradstein & Fedor Miryugin & Florian Misch, 2019. "Productivity and Tax Evasion," CESifo Working Paper Series 8002, CESifo.
    7. Donici, Gabriel-Andrei/GA, 2012. "The effects of the underground economy on economic competitiviness," MPRA Paper 36025, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Vesa Kanniainen & Jenni Pääkkönen, 2004. "Anonymous Money, Moral Sentiments and Welfare," CESifo Working Paper Series 1258, CESifo.
    9. Manamba EPAPHRA & Moga Tano JILENGA, 2017. "Currency Demand, the Subterranean Economy and Tax Evasion: The Case of Tanzania," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 187-211, June.
    10. Onwuka , Ifeanyi & Ayeni, Emmanuel, 2023. "Financial Development and Shadow Economy in Africa: Evidence from Panel Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Development, The Economic Research Institute, Chung-Ang University, vol. 48(2), pages 123-141, June.
    11. Salahodjaev, Raufhon, 2015. "Intelligence and Shadow Economy: a Cross-Country Empirical Assessment," MPRA Paper 61976, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrew Feltenstein & Musharraf Cyan, 2012. "A Computational General Equilibrium Approach to Sectoral Analysis for Tax Potential: An Application to Pakistan," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1226, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    2. Ibrahim Ngouhouo & Loudi Njoya & Simplice A. Asongu, 2022. "Corruption, Economic Growth and the Informal Sector: Empirical Evidence from Developing Countries," Working Papers 22/014, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    3. Dabla-Norris, Era & Gradstein, Mark & Inchauste, Gabriela, 2008. "What causes firms to hide output? The determinants of informality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 1-27, February.
    4. Feltenstein, Andrew & Rochon, Céline & Shamloo, Maral, 2010. "High growth and low consumption in East Asia: How to improve welfare while avoiding financial failures," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 25-36, January.
    5. M. Ali Kemal, 2007. "A Fresh Assessment of the Underground Economy and Tax Evasion in Pakistan : Causes, Consequences, and Linkages with the Formal Economy," Microeconomics Working Papers 22200, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    6. Ihrig, Jane & Moe, Karine S., 2004. "Lurking in the shadows: the informal sector and government policy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 541-557, April.
    7. Russo Francesco Flaviano, 2018. "Informality: the Doorstep of the Legal System," Open Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 49-70, June.
    8. Masatlioglu Yusufcan & Rigolini Jamele, 2008. "Informality Traps," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, December.
    9. Thorsten Beck & Chen Lin & Yue Ma, 2014. "Why Do Firms Evade Taxes? The Role of Information Sharing and Financial Sector Outreach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 763-817, April.
    10. Amaral, Pedro S. & Quintin, Erwan, 2006. "A competitive model of the informal sector," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1541-1553, October.
    11. Chaudhuri, Sarbajit & Mukhopadhyay, Ujjaini, 2009. "Revisiting the Informal Sector: A General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 52135, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Semih Tumen, 2016. "Informality as a stepping stone: A search-theoretical assessment of informal sector and government policy," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 16(3), pages 109-117.
    13. Maiti, Dibyendu & Bhattacharyya, Chandril, 2020. "Informality, enforcement and growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 259-274.
    14. Era Dabla‐Norris & Andrew Feltenstein, 2005. "The underground economy and its macroeconomic consequences," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 153-174.
    15. Stephen Dobson & Carlyn Ramlogan-Dobson & Eric Strobl, 2020. "Savings and the informal sector," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 217-234, March.
    16. Alberto Chong & Mark Gradstein, 2004. "Desigualdad, instituciones e informalidad," Research Department Publications 4378, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    17. Ceyhun Elgin & Ferda Erturk, 2019. "Informal economies around the world: measures, determinants and consequences," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(2), pages 221-237, June.
    18. Ball, Sheryl & Feltenstein, Andrew, 2001. "Bank failures and fiscal austerity: policy prescriptions for a developing country," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 247-270, November.
    19. Pedro S. Amaral & Erwan Quintin, 2003. "The Implications of Capital-Skill Complementarity in Economies with Large Informal Sectors," Macroeconomics 0309017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Maxim Bouev, 2005. "State Regulations, Job Search and Wage Bargaining: A Study in the Economics of the Informal Sector," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp764, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2003/023. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.