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Are Mexican Business Cycles Asymmetrical?

Author

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  • Mr. Andre O Santos

Abstract

We use the regime-switching econometric models in Hamilton (1989) and Filardo (1994) to study business cycles in Mexico. In particular, we characterize the ups and downs of economic activity in Mexico. As a proxy for economic activity, we use the Mexican quarterly industrial production index from the second quarter of 1972 to the third quarter of 1999. We allow the transition probabilities driving changes in economic activity to be a function of fiscal, financial, and external sector indicators. Our results show that recessions in Mexico are deeper and shorter than expansions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Andre O Santos, 2002. "Are Mexican Business Cycles Asymmetrical?," IMF Working Papers 2002/150, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2002/150
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. M. Ayhan Kose & Guy M. Meredith & Christopher M. Towe, 2005. "How Has NAFTA Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence," Springer Books, in: Rolf J. Langhammer & Lúcio Vinhas Souza (ed.), Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization in Latin America, pages 35-81, Springer.
    2. Miles, William, 2017. "Has there actually been a sustained increase in the synchronization of house price (and business) cycles across countries?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 25-43.
    3. Mr. Sebastian Sosa, 2008. "External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico: How Important are U.S. Factors?," IMF Working Papers 2008/100, International Monetary Fund.
    4. William Miles & Chu‐Ping C. Vijverberg, 2018. "Did the Euro Common Currency Increase or Decrease Business Cycle Synchronization for its Member Countries?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 85(339), pages 558-580, July.

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