IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2001-146.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Real Convergence to EU Income Levels: Central Europe From 1990 to the Long Term

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Guorong Jiang
  • Mr. Peter Doyle
  • Louis Kuijs

Abstract

The paper discusses factors likely to shape the nature and pace of economic growth of five Central European transition countries now engaged in accession to the European Union. It is organized around the standard growth accounting framework. The paper reviews the growth of these countries since 1990 and draws lessons from the growth experiences of other regions since the 1950s, shedding light on long-term growth prospects for these countries. It discusses a set of growth calculations and highlights the key uncertainties in them.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Guorong Jiang & Mr. Peter Doyle & Louis Kuijs, 2001. "Real Convergence to EU Income Levels: Central Europe From 1990 to the Long Term," IMF Working Papers 2001/146, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2001/146
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=15355
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    2. Mr. Peter J Montiel & Mr. Eduardo Borensztein, 1991. "Savings, Investment, and Growth in Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 1991/061, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Zoltán M. Jakab & Mihály András Kovács, 1999. "Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Hungary," MNB Working Papers 1999/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    4. repec:zbw:bofitp:2001_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Nicholas Crafts, 1999. "East Asian Growth Before and After the Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-2.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 1999. "Hungary: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 1999/027, International Monetary Fund.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2001. "Interpreting Real Exchange Rate Movements in Transition Countries," IMF Working Papers 2001/056, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Heather Gibson & Jim Malley, 2008. "The Contribution of Sectoral Productivity Differentials to Inflation in Greece," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(5), pages 629-650, November.
    2. Michel Aglietta & Camille Baulant & Sandra Moatti, 2003. "Les PECO devant la tentation de l'euro," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 93, pages 11-36.
    3. �kos Dombi, 2013. "The sources of economic growth and relative backwardness in the Central Eastern European countries between 1995 and 2007," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 425-447, December.
    4. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Economakis, George & Milios, John G. & Maroudas, Leonidas & Aggelis, Vassilis, 2005. "Growth, Technological Change and Output Gap in Russia," MPRA Paper 74479, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Biljana Petkovska, 2008. "Estimation of the investment function for the Republic of Macedonia," Working Papers 2008-04, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    6. Dubravko Mihaljek & Marc Klau, 2003. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect in central Europe: a disaggregated analysis," BIS Working Papers 143, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Krkoska, Libor & Teksoz, Utku, 2007. "Accuracy of GDP growth forecasts for transition countries: Ten years of forecasting assessed," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 29-45.
    8. Emília Zimková & Jaroslav Barochovský, 2007. "Odhad potenciálneho produktu a produkčnej medzery v slovenských podmienkach [Estimation of potential product and output gap in slovak conditions]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2007(4), pages 473-489.
    9. Alina F. Klein & Rudolf F. Klein, 2017. "Currency Undervaluation and Economic Growth in Central and Eastern European Countries," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(7), pages 69-85, July.
    10. E.Tsanana & C. Katrakilidis, 2016. "The issue of convergence: New empirical evidence for the Central Eastern Europe area," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 16(1), pages 53-62.
    11. Petrevski, Goran & Gockov, Gjorgji & Makreshanska-Mladenovska, Suzana, 2016. "Determinants of real convergence in Central and Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 74655, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Oct 2016.
    12. Monga, Celestin, 2004. "Latvia's macroeconomic options in the medium term : fiscal and monetary challenges of European Union membership," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3307, The World Bank.
    13. Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks, 2016. "Catching up in Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(4), pages 319-340.
    14. Eftychia Tsanana & Constantinos Katrakilidis, 2014. "Do Balkan economies catch up with EU? New evidence from panel unit root analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 641-662, November.
    15. Katrin Olenko, 2004. "Sustainability of the Estonian macroeconomic performance in the light of the EU membership," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 41, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    16. Marcin Piatkowski, 2004. "Does ICT Investment Matter for Growth and Labor Productivity in Transition Economies?," Development and Comp Systems 0402008, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. János Gács, 1999. "Teilprojekt 2: Macroeconomic Developments in the Candidate Countries with Respect to the Accession Process," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 13584.
    2. Christoph Fischer, 2004. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(2), pages 179-210, June.
    3. Tomas Holub & Martin Cihak, 2003. "Price Convergence: What Can the Balassa-Samuelson Model Tell Us?," Working Papers 2003/08, Czech National Bank.
    4. repec:zbw:bofitp:2002_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. García Solanes José, 2008. "Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Central and Eastern European Countries. Why the Balassa-Samuelson Effect Does Not Explain the Whole Story," Working Papers 2010100, Fundacion BBVA / BBVA Foundation.
    6. Christoph Fischer, 2004. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(2), pages 179-210, June.
    7. Mr. Juan Zalduendo, 2008. "Bivariate Assessments of Real Exchange Rates Using PPP Data," IMF Working Papers 2008/153, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Robert A. Blecker, 2009. "Long-Run Growth in Open Economies: Export-Led Cumulative Causation or a Balance-of-Payments Constraint?," Working Papers 2009-23, American University, Department of Economics.
    9. Vasily Astrov, 2005. "Sectoral Productivity, Demand, and Terms of Trade: What Drives the Real Appreciation of the East European Currencies?," wiiw Working Papers 34, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    10. Francois Gurtner, 2002. "Currency Board and Debt Trap: Evidence from Argentina and Relevance for Estonia," CERT Discussion Papers 0204, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
    11. Alejandro Díaz-Bautista & Jorge Eduardo Mendoza Cota, 2004. "Regional Convergence Of Income And Labor Productivity In Mexico," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 3(1), pages 3-20, Marzo 200.
    12. Nienke Oomes & Vahram Stepanyan & Gohar Minasyan & Ara Stepanyan, 2009. "In Search of a Dramatic Equilibrium: Was the Armenian Dram Overvalued?," IMF Working Papers 2009/049, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Diego Bastourre & Luis Casanova & Alejo Espora, 2011. "Tipo de Cambio Real y Crecimiento: Síntesis de la Evidencia y Agenda de Investigación," Department of Economics, Working Papers 082, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    14. Hassan, Fadi, 2016. "The price of development: The Penn–Balassa–Samuelson effect revisited," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 291-309.
    15. Themba G. Chirwa & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "The nexus between key macroeconomic determinants and economic growth in Zambia: a dynamic multivariate Granger causality linkage," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 301-327, July.
    16. Mariarosaria Comunale & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2021. "Tracking growth in the euro area subject to a dimensionality problem," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(57), pages 6611-6625, December.
    17. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2007. "Relative Prices and Relative Prosperity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 562-585, June.
    18. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2015. "Crecimiento económico y desalineación del tipo de cambio real en la República Dominicana: ¿Hay alguna relación? [Economic growth and the real exchange rate misalignments in the Dominican Republic: ," MPRA Paper 70974, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. repec:bap:eebook:02 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:zbw:bofitp:2001_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Mariarosaria Comunale & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2019. "Who did it? A European Detective Story. Was it Real, Financial, Monetary and/or Institutional: Tracking Growth in the Euro Area with an Atheoretical Tool," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 70, Bank of Lithuania.
    22. R. Church & J. C. Duque & D. E. Restrepo, 2020. "The p-Innovation ecosystems model," Papers 2008.05885, arXiv.org.
    23. Matthias Figo & Peter Mayerhofer, 2015. "Strukturwandel und regionales Wachstum - wissensintensive Unternehmensdienste als Wachstumsmotor?," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 145, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2001/146. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.