IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2001-075.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Domestic Petroleum Price Smoothing in Developing and Transition Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Benedict F. W. Bingham
  • Mr. James Daniel
  • Mr. Giulio Federico

Abstract

This paper examines the case for government-led smoothing of domestic petroleum prices in the face of volatile international prices. Governments in most developing and transition countries engage in petroleum price smoothing, as the survey of country practice carried out for this paper shows. This paper reviews the potential welfare implications of petroleum price volatility, and assesses different price smoothing rules on the basis of historical oil prices. These simulations reveal the presence of a sharp trade-off between price smoothing and fiscal stability, suggesting that developing and transition country governments should engage in limited price smoothing and, if possible, rely on hedging instruments to do so.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Benedict F. W. Bingham & Mr. James Daniel & Mr. Giulio Federico, 2001. "Domestic Petroleum Price Smoothing in Developing and Transition Countries," IMF Working Papers 2001/075, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2001/075
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=15189
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-1248, September.
    2. Deaton, Angus & Miller, Ron, 1996. "International Commodity Prices, Macroeconomic Performance and Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 5(3), pages 99-191, October.
    3. Mr. Rodrigo O. Valdes & Mr. Eduardo E Engel, 2000. "Optimal Fiscal Strategy for Oil Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 2000/118, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Paul Cashin & Hong Liang & C. John McDermott, 2000. "How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 1-2.
    5. Kletzer, Ken & Newbery, David M & Wright, Brian D, 1992. "Smoothing Primary Exporters' Price Risks: Bonds, Futures, Options and Insurance," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 641-671, October.
    6. Paxson, Christina H, 1992. "Using Weather Variability to Estimate the Response of Savings to Transitory Income in Thailand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 15-33, March.
    7. Benton F. Massell, 1969. "Price Stabilization and Welfare," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 83(2), pages 284-298.
    8. Mr. Peter Wickham, 1996. "Volatility of Oil Prices," IMF Working Papers 1996/082, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Turnovsky, Stephen J & Shalit, Haim & Schmitz, Andrew, 1980. "Consumer's Surplus, Price Instability, and Consumer Welfare," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 135-152, January.
    10. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Scott, Alasdair, 2002. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 277-296, October.
    11. Javier León & Raimundo Soto, 1997. "Structural Breaks And Long-Run Trends In Commodity Prices," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 347-366.
    12. Frederick V. Waugh, 1944. "Does the Consumer Benefit from Price Instability?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 58(4), pages 602-614.
    13. A. Mazaheri, 1999. "Convenience yield, mean reverting prices, and long memory in the petroleum market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 31-50.
    14. Avinash Dixit, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-132, Winter.
    15. Nickell, Stephen, 1985. "Error Correction, Partial Adjustment and All That: An Expository Note," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 47(2), pages 119-129, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Di Bella & Mr. Lawrence Norton & Mr. Joseph Ntamatungiro & Ms. Sumiko Ogawa & Issouf Samaké & Marika Santoro, 2015. "Energy Subsidies in Latin America and the Caribbean: Stocktaking and Policy Challenges," IMF Working Papers 2015/030, International Monetary Fund.
    2. José Gallardo & Arturo Vásquez & Luis Bendezú, 2005. "La Problemática de los Precios de los Combustibles," Working Papers 11, Osinergmin, Gerencia de Políticas y Análisis Económico.
    3. Arze del Granado, Francisco Javier & Coady, David & Gillingham, Robert, 2012. "The Unequal Benefits of Fuel Subsidies: A Review of Evidence for Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(11), pages 2234-2248.
    4. Ton S van den Bremer & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2013. "Managing and Harnessing Volatile Oil Windfalls," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 130-167, April.
    5. Chebbi, Ali, 2019. "How to enlarge the fiscal space and gain efficiency when adopting automatic fuel pricing mechanisms? The Tunisian case," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 34-43.
    6. Paterson, Anna, 2005. "Understanding Markets in Afghanistan: A Study of the Market for Petroleum Fuels," Case Studies 14634, Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit.
    7. Mr. David Coady & Mr. Taimur Baig & Mr. Joseph Ntamatungiro & Mr. Amine Mati, 2007. "Domestic Petroleum Product Prices and Subsidies: Recent Developments and Reform Strategies," IMF Working Papers 2007/071, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Daniel Artana, Marcelo Catena y Fernando Navajas & Fernando Navajas & Marcelo Catena, 2007. "El Shock de los Precios del Petróleo en América Central: Implicancias Fiscales y Energéticas," Working Papers 94, FIEL.
    9. Artana, Daniel & Navajas, Fernando & Catena, Marcelo, 2007. "El Shock de los Precios del Petróleo en América Central: Implicancias Fiscales y Energéticas," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2170, Inter-American Development Bank.
    10. Jon Strand, 2010. "Inertia in Infrastructure Development," Journal of Infrastructure Development, India Development Foundation, vol. 2(1), pages 51-70, June.
    11. Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei & Désiré Vencatachellum, 2008. "Optimal Pass-Through of Oil Prices in an Economy with Nominal Rigidities," Cahiers de recherche 0831, CIRPEE.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dehn, Jan, 2000. "The effects on growth of commodity price uncertainty and shocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2455, The World Bank.
    2. Chebbi, Ali, 2019. "How to enlarge the fiscal space and gain efficiency when adopting automatic fuel pricing mechanisms? The Tunisian case," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 34-43.
    3. Christophe Gouel, 2012. "Agricultural Price Instability: A Survey Of Competing Explanations And Remedies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 129-156, February.
    4. Mr. James Daniel, 2001. "Hedging Government Oil Price Risk," IMF Working Papers 2001/185, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Borensztein, Eduardo & Jeanne, Olivier & Sandri, Damiano, 2013. "Macro-hedging for commodity exporters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 105-116.
    6. Winkelried, Diego, 2021. "Unit roots in real primary commodity prices? A meta-analysis of the Grilli and Yang data set," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    7. Paul Cashin & C. John McCDermott, 2002. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 1-2.
    8. Van Kooten, G. C. & Spriggs, John & Schmitz, Andrew, 1989. "The Impact of Canadian Commodity Stabilization Programs on Risk Reduction and the Supply of Agricultural Commodities," Working Papers 244037, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
    9. Jan Dehn, 2000. "Commodity Price Uncertainty and Shocks: Implications for Economic Growth," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2000-10, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    10. Cashin, Paul & Cespedes, Luis F. & Sahay, Ratna, 2004. "Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 239-268, October.
    11. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2013. "Primary commodity prices: Co-movements, common factors and fundamentals," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 16-26.
    12. Agustin Roitman & Christian Daude, 2011. "Imperfect Information and Saving in a Small Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 2011/060, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Carlos Coimbra & Paulo Soares Esteves, 2004. "Oil price assumptions in macroeconomic forecasts: should we follow futures market expectations?," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 28(2), pages 87-106, June.
    14. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Pattillo, Catherine, 2004. "Terms of trade shocks in Africa: are they short-lived or long-lived?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 727-744, April.
    15. Moledina, Amyaz A. & Roe, Terry L. & Shane, Mathew, 2004. "Measuring Commodity Price Volatility And The Welfare Consequences Of Eliminating Volatility," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 19963, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    16. Ghoshray Atanu & Kejriwal Mohitosh & Wohar Mark, 2014. "Breaks, trends and unit roots in commodity prices: a robust investigation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 23-40, February.
    17. Byrne, Joseph P & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2010. "Optimism and commitment: An elementary theory of bargaining and war," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-102, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    18. Swaray, Raymond, 2011. "Commodity buffer stock redux: The role of International Cocoa Organization in prices and incomes," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 361-369, May.
    19. Wright, Brian D. & Williams, Jeffrey C., 1986. "Measurement of Consumer Gains from Market Stabilization," CUDARE Working Papers 198343, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    20. Hayashi, Takashi, 2014. "Consumer surplus analysis under uncertainty: A general equilibrium perspective," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 154-164.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2001/075. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.