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Technology and Epidemics

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Alberto Chong
  • Ms. Luisa Zanforlin

Abstract

Evidence from historical and epidemiological literatures show that epidemics tend to spread in the population according to a logistic pattern. We conjecture that the impact of new technologies on output follows a pattern of spread not unlike that of typical epidemics. After reaching a critical mass, rates of growth will accelerate until the marginal benefits of technology are fully utilized. We estimate spline functions using a GMM dynamic panel methodology for 79 countries. We use imports of machinery and equipment as a fraction of gross domestic product as a proxy for the process of technological adoption. Results confirm our hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Alberto Chong & Ms. Luisa Zanforlin, 1999. "Technology and Epidemics," IMF Working Papers 1999/125, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1999/125
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    Cited by:

    1. Rioja, Felix & Valev, Neven, 2004. "Does one size fit all?: a reexamination of the finance and growth relationship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 429-447, August.
    2. Chong, Alberto & Micco, Alejandro, 2003. "The Internet and the ability to innovate in Latin America," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 53-72, March.
    3. Felix Rioja & Neven Valev, 2002. "Financial Development and Growth: A Positive, Monotonic Relationship?," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0207, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    4. Ozan Hatipoglu, 2007. "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Inequality and Innovation in a Schumpeterian Framework," Working Papers 2007/10, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    5. Jeff Naidoo & Jeffrey T. Huber & Pamela Cupp & Qishan Wu, 2013. "Modeling the relationship between an emerging infectious disease epidemic and the body of scientific literature associated with it: The case of HIV/AIDS in the United States," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 64(2), pages 380-391, February.
    6. Alberto Chong & Alejandro Micco, 2002. "Internet y la capacidad de innovar en América Latina," Research Department Publications 4292, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    7. Teixeira, Aurora A.C. & Fortuna, Natércia, 2010. "Human capital, R&D, trade, and long-run productivity. Testing the technological absorption hypothesis for the Portuguese economy, 1960-2001," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 335-350, April.
    8. Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Natércia Fortuna, 2006. "Human capital, trade and long-run productivity. Testing the technological absorption hypothesis for the Portuguese economy, 1960-2001," FEP Working Papers 226, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    9. César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Luisa Zanforlin, 2001. "On Non-Linearities Between Exports Of Manufactures And Economic Growth," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 4, pages 279-311, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; rate of growth; epidemic pattern; upper bound; growth; epidemics; logistic; technology transfer; machinery and equipment; GMM system estimator method; technology coefficient; high-rate-of contagion interval; Estimation techniques; Imports; Emerging technologies; Stocks; East Asia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O39 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Other
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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