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A Dynamic Model of Inflation for Kenya, 1974–1996

Author

Listed:
  • Njuguna S. Ndung'u
  • Mr. Dick Durevall

Abstract

This paper analyses the dynamics of inflation in Kenya during 1974–96, a period characterized by external shocks and internal disequilibria. By developing a parsimonious and empirically constant error correction model the paper finds that the exchange rate, foreign prices, and terms of trade have long-run effects on inflation, while the money supply and interest rate only have short-run effects. The dynamics of inflation are also found to be influenced by food supply constraints. Moreover, inertia is important for the period up to 1993, when about 40 percent of current inflation was transmitted to the next quarter. After 1993 inertia drops to about 10 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Njuguna S. Ndung'u & Mr. Dick Durevall, 1999. "A Dynamic Model of Inflation for Kenya, 1974–1996," IMF Working Papers 1999/097, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1999/097
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Inflation and Economic Growth in Kenya: An Empirical Examination," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(3), pages 1-25, September.
    2. Lekgatlhamang Setlhare, 2004. "Bank Of Botswana'S Reaction Function: Modelling Botswana'S Monetary Policy Strategy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 72(2), pages 384-406, June.
    3. Bacchetta, Marc & Jansen, Marion, 2003. "Adjusting to trade liberalization: The role of policy, institutions and WTO Disciplines," WTO Special Studies, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division, volume 7, number 7.
    4. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Inflation and Economic Growth in Kenya: An Empirical Examination," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(3), pages 1-25, September.
    5. LOENING, Josef & TAKADA, Hideki, 2008. "Inflationary Expectations In Ethiopia: Some Preliminary Results," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(2), pages 159-176.
    6. T. Saungweme & N.M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Inflation and Economic Growth in Kenya: An Empirical Examination," Working Papers AESRI-2021-13, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised Oct 2021.
    7. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, "undated". "Inflation And Economic Growth In Kenya: An Empirical Examination," Working Papers AESRI04, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI).
    8. Misati, Roseline Nyakerario & Munene, Olive, 2015. "Second Round Effects And Pass-Through Of Food Prices To Inflation In Kenya," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(3), pages 1-13, July.

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