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The Price Incentive to Smuggle and the Cocoa Supply in Ghana, 1950-96

Author

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  • Mr. Aleš Bulíř

Abstract

From the early 1960s to the early 1980s, the officially recorded production of cocoa in Ghana declined by 60 percent. During the 1983–95 Economic Recovery Program, however, cocoa production doubled. Although these developments have inspired much empirical research, most of the studies have been unable to explain the medium-term persistence of cocoa output to remain below its estimated capacity level. The paper argues that the price incentive to smuggle can explain as much as one-half of the observed decline in output and the subsequent recovery. A cointegration analysis and a dynamic error-correction model of cocoa supply support the analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Aleš Bulíř, 1998. "The Price Incentive to Smuggle and the Cocoa Supply in Ghana, 1950-96," IMF Working Papers 1998/088, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1998/088
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    Cited by:

    1. Breisinger, Clemens & Diao, Xinshen & Kolavalli, Shashi & Thurlow, James, 2008. "The role of cocoa in Ghana's future development: Do geography and ethnic diversity matter?," GSSP working papers 11, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Ameyaw, Emmanuel, 2024. "Business cycles in a cocoa and gold economy: Commodity price shocks do not always matter," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Habtamu Ali Beshir & Jean-François Maystadt, 2022. "Price shocks and human capital: Timing matters," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2022020, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    4. Abbott, Philip C., 2003. "Towards More Socially Responsible Cocoa Trade," Working Papers 14603, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    5. Patricia Sourdin & Richard Pomfret, 2012. "Trade Facilitation," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14596.

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