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Parametric Distributional Flexibility and Conditional Variance Models with an Application to Hourly Exchange Rates

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  • Ms. Jenny N. Lye

Abstract

This paper builds on the ARCH approach for modeling distributions with time-varying conditional variance by using the generalized Student t distribution. The distribution offers flexibility in modeling both leptokurtosis and asymmetry (characteristics seen in high-frequency financial time series data), nests the standard normal and Student t distributions, and is related to the Gram Charlier and mixture distributions. An empirical ARCH model based on this distribution is formulated and estimated using hourly exchange rate returns for four currencies. The generalized Student t is found to better model the empirical conditional and unconditional distributions than other distributional specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Jenny N. Lye, 1998. "Parametric Distributional Flexibility and Conditional Variance Models with an Application to Hourly Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 1998/029, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1998/029
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    Cited by:

    1. V. L. Martin & G. M. Martin & G. C. Lim, 2005. "Parametric pricing of higher order moments in S&P500 options," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 377-404.
    2. Lejeune, Bernard, 2009. "A diagnostic m-test for distributional specification of parametric conditional heteroscedasticity models for financial data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 507-523, June.
    3. Beine, Michel & Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Lecourt, Christelle, 2002. "Central bank intervention and foreign exchange rates: new evidence from FIGARCH estimations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 115-144, February.
    4. Richard Harris & C. Coskun Kucukozmen & Fatih Yilmaz, 2004. "Skewness in the conditional distribution of daily equity returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 195-202.

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