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Foreign Exchange Risk Premium: Does Fiscal Policy Matter? Evidence From Italian Data

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  • Mr. Lorenzo Giorgianni

Abstract

This paper challenges the conventional view that foreign exchange risk premiums are small, not volatile, and unrelated to macroeconomic variables. For the Italian lira (1987-94), unconditional risk premiums—constructed using survey data to measure exchange rate expectations—are found to be sizable (relative to the dimension of the forward premium), highly volatile (relative to the variability of the forward bias), and predictable. Estimation of structural models of the risk premium suggests that anticipated fiscal contractions in Italy and lower uncertainty about the future path of fiscal policy are associated with a lower risk premium on lira-denominated assets.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Lorenzo Giorgianni, 1997. "Foreign Exchange Risk Premium: Does Fiscal Policy Matter? Evidence From Italian Data," IMF Working Papers 1997/039, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1997/039
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004. "Exchange rate risk and convergence to the Euro," ZEI Working Papers B 25-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    2. Chionis, Dionysios & MacDonald, Ronald, 2002. "Aggregate and disaggregate measures of the foreign exchange risk premium," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 57-84, April.
    3. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2022. "Risk-premium shocks and the prudent exchange rate policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 97-122.
    4. Halil Ibrahim Korkmaz & Yigit Onay, 2018. "The Determinants of Currency Risk Premium in Emerging Market Countries," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1806, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    5. Stuart Landon & Constance E. Smith, 2003. "The Risk Premium, Exchange Rate Expectations, and the Forward Exchange Rate: Estimates for the Yen–Dollar Rate," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 144-158, February.
    6. Heinemann, Friedrich, 1998. "EMU and fiscal discipline: the end of the depreciation threat," ZEW Discussion Papers 98-30, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Christian C.P. Wolff, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Survey And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 140-165, February.
    8. Mr. Prakash Kannan, 2008. "Perspectives on High Real Interest Rates in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 2008/251, International Monetary Fund.
    9. André, Marine C. & Armijo, Alberto & Espidio, Sebastián Medina & Sandoval, Jamel, 2023. "Policy mix in a small open emerging economy with commodity prices," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).
    10. Paul Fenton & Alain Paquet, 1997. "International Interest Rate Differentials: The Interaction with Fiscal and Monetary Variables, and the Business Cycle," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 56, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal, revised Jan 1998.
    11. Bhatta, Guna Raj & Nepal, Rabindra & Harvie, Charles & Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu, 2022. "Testing for the uncovered interest parity condition in a small open economy: A state space modelling approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    12. Katarzyna Leszkiewicz-Kędzior, 2011. "Modelling Fuel Prices. An I(1) Analysis," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 3(2), pages 75-95, June.
    13. Robert Kelm, 2010. "The Exchange Rate and Two Price Inflations in Poland in the Period 1999-2009. Do Globalization and Balassa-Samuelson Effect Matter?," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 2(4), pages 315-349, September.

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