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Possible Effects of European Monetary Union on Switzerland: A Case Study of Policy Dilemmas Caused by Low Inflation and the Nominal Interest Rate Floor

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Douglas Laxton
  • Mr. Eswar S Prasad

Abstract

This paper examines the possible effects on Switzerland of asset preference shifts in favor of Swiss-franc-denominated assets that could result from EMU. Alternative policy responses to temporary and persistent asset preference shifts and the consequent pressures for exchange rate appreciation are examined. Simulations of a stylized macroeconomic model of the Swiss economy indicate that monetary policy is likely to be the most effective tool for stabilizing output in the short run, but at the cost of a temporary increase in inflationary pressures. The simulations highlight the dilemmas faced by policymakers in an environment with low inflation and nominal interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Eswar S Prasad, 1997. "Possible Effects of European Monetary Union on Switzerland: A Case Study of Policy Dilemmas Caused by Low Inflation and the Nominal Interest Rate Floor," IMF Working Papers 1997/023, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1997/023
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1071-1101, July.
    2. Coenen Günter & Orphanides Athanasios & Wieland Volker, 2004. "Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-25, February.
    3. Benjamin Hunt & Douglas Laxton, 2004. "The Zero Interest Rate Floor (ZIF) and its Implications for Monetary Policy in Japan," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 187(1), pages 76-92, January.
    4. McCauley, R.N., 1997. "The Euro and the Dollar," Princeton Essays in International Economics 205, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    5. Günter Coenen & Volker W. Wieland, 2004. "Exchange-Rate Policy and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 80-84, May.
    6. Patricia S. Pollard, 2001. "The creation of the Euro and the role of the dollar in international markets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(May), pages 17-36.
    7. Coenen, Guenter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The Zero-Interest-Rate and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary Policy in Japan," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    8. Peter A. Tinsley, 1998. "Short rate expectations, term premiums, and central bank use of derivatives to reduce policy uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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