IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/1996-044.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation Targeting in the United Kingdom: Information Content of Financial and Monetary Variables

Author

Listed:
  • Josef Baumgartner
  • Mr. Ramana Ramaswamy

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to identify a set of leading indicators of inflation for the United Kingdom, and discuss the conceptual issues pertaining to inflation targeting. The main conclusions are that narrow money has strong leading indicator properties for inflation, while broad money does not. Long yields appear to have some information for the GDP deflator, and headline inflation, and short yields for underlying inflation. Spreads between commercial paper and gilts, and the yield curve, have very little predictive information on inflation. An interesting conclusion is that while the nominal effective exchange rate is not a good predictor of inflation, the sterling-deutsche mark exchange rate appears to have weak predictive information on the targeted measure of inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Josef Baumgartner & Mr. Ramana Ramaswamy, 1996. "Inflation Targeting in the United Kingdom: Information Content of Financial and Monetary Variables," IMF Working Papers 1996/044, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1996/044
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=2038
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, 2002. "The Impact of Banking Crises on Money Demand and Price Stability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(3), pages 1-1.
    2. Csermely, Ágnes, 1997. "Az inflációs célkitűzés rendszere [Inflation targeting]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 233-253.
    3. Henry Muganza Ngongo, 2015. "Les indicateus avancés de l'inflation en RDCongo," Post-Print hal-01202369, HAL.
    4. Henry Ngongo, 2015. "Les indicateus avanc\'es de l'inflation en RDCongo," Papers 1509.06504, arXiv.org.
    5. Fatith Ozatay, 2002. "Effects of contemporaneous aggregation on the predictive power of information variables," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 339-342.
    6. Palle S. Andersen, 1997. "Forecast errors and financial developments," BIS Working Papers 51, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Juda Agung & Siti Astiyah & Elisabeth Sukowati & Nugroho J. Prastowo & M.Firdauz Muttaqin & Rifqi Ismal, 2003. "Identifikasi Variabel Informasi Dalam Framework Inflation Targeting," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 6(3), pages 59-77, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1996/044. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.