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The Fisher Hypothesis and Inflation Persistence: Evidence From Five Major Industrial Countries

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  • Mr. Wensheng Peng

Abstract

This paper presents an empirical evaluation of the strength of the Fisher effect which predicts a positive relationship between the nominal interest rate and inflation in the postwar period in the five major industrial countries, utilizing recently developed time series techniques. The results suggest that the Fisher effect is stronger in France, the United Kingdom, and the United States than in Germany and Japan. It is argued that the differences in the linkage between the interest rate and the inflation rate as between the two groups of countries are reflected in the time series properties of the inflation rates, which are, in turn, partly attributable to the different extent to which monetary authorities accommodated inflationary shocks. The empirical results have a number of implications for the long-term trend in the SDR interest rate and for the financing of the Fund’s operations.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Wensheng Peng, 1995. "The Fisher Hypothesis and Inflation Persistence: Evidence From Five Major Industrial Countries," IMF Working Papers 1995/118, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1995/118
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    Cited by:

    1. Ismet Gocer & Serdar Ongan, 2020. "The Relationship between Inflation and Interest Rates in the UK: The Nonlinear ARDL Approach," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(3), pages 77-86.
    2. Utku ALTUNÖZ, 2018. "Investigating the Presence of Fisher Effect for the China Economy," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 26(35).
    3. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 613-652, June.
    4. Maghyereh, A. & Al-Zoubi, H., 2006. "Does Fisher Effect Apply in Developing Countries: Evidence From a Nonlinear Cotrending Test applied to Argentina, Brazil, Malysia, Mexico, Korea and Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(2).
    5. Sami Taban & Tayfur Bayat & Ferit Önder, 2014. "Fisher Effect in Austria Causality Approach," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 0401542, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    6. Arusha Cooray, 2003. "The Fisher Effect: A Survey," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 48(02), pages 135-150.
    7. Yu-Fen Chen & Thomas Chinan Chiang & Fu-Lai Lin, 2023. "Inflation, Equity Market Volatility, and Bond Prices: Evidence from G7 Countries," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-22, October.

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