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Do Taxes Matter for Long-Run Growth? Harberger's Superneutrality Conjecture

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  • Patrick K. Asea
  • Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti
  • Mr. Enrique G. Mendoza

Abstract

Harberger’s superneutrality conjecture contends that, although in theory the mix of direct and indirect taxes affects investment and growth, in practice growth effects of taxation are negligible. This paper provides evidence in support of this view by testing the predictions of endogenous growth models driven by human capital accumulation. The theoretical analysis highlights implications of different taxes for growth and investment in these models. The empirical work is based on cross-country regressions and numerical simulations, using a new methodology for estimating aggregate effective tax rates. Results show significant investment effects from income and consumption taxes that are consistent with small growth effects. The results are robust to the introduction of other growth determinants.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick K. Asea & Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Mr. Enrique G. Mendoza, 1995. "Do Taxes Matter for Long-Run Growth? Harberger's Superneutrality Conjecture," IMF Working Papers 1995/079, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1995/079
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    3. Zeng, Jinli, 2003. "Reexamining the interaction between innovation and capital accumulation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 541-560, December.
    4. Marcin Piatkowski & Mariusz Jarmuzek, 2008. "Zero Corporate Income Tax in Moldova: Tax Competition and Its Implications for Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 2008/203, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Nouriel Roubini, 1995. "Growth Effects of Income and Consumption Taxes: Positive and Normative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Kashif Munir & Maryam Sultan, 2018. "Are some taxes better for growth in Pakistan? A time series analysis," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 45(10), pages 1439-1452, August.
    7. José E. Boscá & José R. García & David Tagüas, 2005. "Effective Tax rates and Fiscal Convergence in the OECD: 1965-2001," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 174(3), pages 119-141, September.

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