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Growth, Nontradables, and Price Convergence in the Baltics

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  • Mr. Anthony J. Richards
  • Gunnar Tersman

Abstract

This paper reviews the recent real exchange rate appreciation observed in the three Baltic countries. Until now, this phenomenon may be viewed primarily as a consequence of the undervalued real exchange rates of the new currencies. Looking ahead, a tendency for continued real appreciation is to be expected as part of the transition process toward higher income levels, due in part to differential productivity growth rates in the tradable and nontradable sectors. In the absence of an appreciation of the nominal exchange rate, this real appreciation will occur through inflation rates that are higher than in industrial countries. Provided that the current prudent economic policies are continued, such higher inflation will not threaten macroeconomic objectives and may indeed be viewed as an indication that the transition process is progressing as expected.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Anthony J. Richards & Gunnar Tersman, 1995. "Growth, Nontradables, and Price Convergence in the Baltics," IMF Working Papers 1995/045, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1995/045
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    Cited by:

    1. Bo??tjan Jazbec, 2002. "Real Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 482, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    2. Kocenda, Evzen & Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2006. "Pilgrims to the Eurozone: How far, how fast?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 311-327, December.
    3. Brada, Josef C., 1998. "Introduction: Exchange Rates, Capital Flows, and Commercial Policies in Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 613-620, December.
    4. Kemme, David M. & Roy, Saktinil, 2006. "Real exchange rate misalignment: Prelude to crisis?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 207-230, October.
    5. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M., 1999. "The end of moderate inflation in three transition economies?," ZEI Working Papers B 21-1999, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    6. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2007. "European integration, productivity growth and real convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1370-1395, August.
    7. Martins Bitans & Dace Slakota & Ivars Tillers, 2001. "Price Dynamics in Latvia - Experience and Future Prospects," Working Papers 2001/01, Latvijas Banka.
    8. Martins Bitans, 2002. "Real Exchange Rate in Latvia (1994-2001)," Working Papers 2002/01, Latvijas Banka.
    9. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2004. "Nominal and real stochastic convergence of transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-36, March.
    10. Raim, Jaanus, 2005. "Former Soviet Union as the World champion in cheapness," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 333-349, June.
    11. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2002. "Nominal and real stochastic convergence within transition economies and to the European Union: Evidence from panel data," ZEI Working Papers B 21-2002, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    12. Josef C. Brada & Ali M. Kutan & Su Zhou, 2002. "Real and Monetary Convergence within the European Union and Between the European Union and Candidate Countries: A Rolling Cointegration Approach," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 458, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    13. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "The convergence of monetary policy between candidate countries and the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 215-231, September.
    14. Kevin Ross, 2000. "Post-stabilization inflation dynamics in Slovenia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 135-149.
    15. Christoph Fischer, 2004. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(2), pages 179-210, June.
    16. Jaanus Raim, 2004. "The Alternative to the Existing System of the Concepts about Purchasing Power Parity Deviations . Derived from the Estonian Experience," Working Papers 115, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology.
    17. Josef C. Brada & Ali M. Kutan, 1998. "The persistence of moderate inflation in the Czech Republic and the Koruna crisis of May 1997," Working Papers 1998-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    18. Bo??tjan Jazbec, 2002. "Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Transition Economies: The Case of Slovenia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 507, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    19. Kornélia Krajnyák & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1998. "Competitiveness in Transition Economies: What Scope for Real Appreciation?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 309-362, June.
    20. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2005. "Real and nominal stochastic convergence: Are the new EU members ready to join the Euro zone?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 387-400, June.
    21. Payne, James E., 2002. "Inflationary dynamics of a transition economy: the Croatian experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 219-230, June.
    22. Adnan Kasman & Saadet Kirbas-Kasman & Evrim Turgutlu, 2005. "Nominal and real convergence between the CEE countries and the EU: a fractional cointegration analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2487-2500.

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