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Macroeconomic Policies and Smuggling: An Analysis of Illegal Oil Trade in Nigeria

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  • Mr. Jian-Ye Wang

Abstract

Based on a simple model, the paper provides an explanation for illegal oil trade between Nigeria and its neighboring countries. The analysis focuses on the linkages between the level of smuggling and changes in the Government’s fiscal, monetary, and domestic pricing policies. It is shown that smuggling has implications for inflation and currency depreciation. A vicious circle emerges when financial policies are expansionary and policy makers attempt to hold the domestic sale price of oil constant. Macroeconomic indicators of Nigeria over the period 1986-1993 appear to support the predictions of the model. Policy implications of the analysis are also noted.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jian-Ye Wang, 1994. "Macroeconomic Policies and Smuggling: An Analysis of Illegal Oil Trade in Nigeria," IMF Working Papers 1994/115, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1994/115
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    Cited by:

    1. Rafat MAHMOOD & Eatzaz AHMAD, 2015. "Measurement Of Import Smuggling In Pakistan," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 25(2), pages 135-159.
    2. Etienne Romsom, 2022. "Countering global oil theft: responses and solutions," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-35, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Etienne Romsom, 2022. "Global oil theft: impact and policy responses," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-16, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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