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ERM Money Supplies and the Transition to EMU

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Paul R Masson
  • Marcel Cassard
  • Mr. Timothy D. Lane

Abstract

Stage 2 of monetary union in the Europe is to involve greater monetary cooperation; the paper examines the case for using the M3 money supply aggregated across “core ERM” countries- -those with low inflation and absence of realignments- -as a vehicle for that cooperation. First, the existence of a satisfactory long-run money demand relationship and short-run dynamic equation is verified. The resulting demand equations have at least as satisfactory econometric properties as those for France and Germany separately. Second, the predictive power of the core-ERM aggregate relative to French and German inflation is examined; it is shown that the aggregate helps to predict German inflation, over and above the predictive power of German M3. Thus, core-ERM M3 has value as an indicator for the anchor country in hitting its own domestic objective, quite separate from any concern about economic developments in neighboring countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Paul R Masson & Marcel Cassard & Mr. Timothy D. Lane, 1994. "ERM Money Supplies and the Transition to EMU," IMF Working Papers 1994/001, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1994/001
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Miguel Lebre de Freitas, 2006. "Currency Substitution and Money Demand in Euroland," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 34(3), pages 275-287, September.
    2. Browne, F.X. & Fagan, G. & Henry, J., 1997. "Money Demand in EU Countries : A Survey," Papers 7, European Monetary Institute.
    3. Ivo Arnold, 1996. "Fallacies in the interpretation of a european monetary aggregate," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 132(4), pages 753-762, December.
    4. Arnold, Ivo J. M. & de Vries, Casper G., 2000. "Endogeneity in European money demand," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 587-609, November.
    5. Miguel Lebre de Freitas, 2006. "Eu-Wide Money And Currency Substitution," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 48-63, November.
    6. Bruggeman, Annick & Donati, Paola & Warne, Anders, 2003. "Is the demand for euro area M3 stable?," Working Paper Series 255, European Central Bank.
    7. Charles A. E. Goodhart & Jose Vinals, 1994. "Strategy an tactics of monetary policy: examples from Europe and the Antipodes," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 38, pages 139-194.
    8. Stefan Gerlach, 1994. "German unification and the demand for German M3," BIS Working Papers 21, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Volker Clausen, 1998. "Money demand and monetary policy in Europe," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 134(4), pages 712-740, December.
    10. Ivo Arnold, 2003. "A Regional Analysis of German Money Demand Around Reunification with Implications for EMU," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 63-80, March.
    11. Funke, Michael, 2001. "Money demand in Euroland," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 701-713, October.
    12. Gerdesmeier, Dieter, 1996. "Die Rolle des Vermögens in der Geldnachfrage," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,05, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Mr. Joaquim Vieira Ferreira Levy & Mr. Alessandro Calza & Mr. Dieter Gerdesmeier, 2001. "Euro Area Money Demand: Measuring the Opportunity Costs Appropriately," IMF Working Papers 2001/179, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Renato Filosa, 1995. "Money demand stability and currency substitution in six European countries (1980-1992)," BIS Working Papers 30, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Gerdesmeier, Dieter, 1996. "The role of wealth in money demand," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,05e, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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