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Portfolio Performance of the SDR and Reserve Currencies: Tests Using the ArCH Methodology

Author

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  • Tugrul Temel
  • Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou

Abstract

In managing their foreign exchange exposure, international investors, including central banks, often compare actual portfolios with hypothetical portfolios that have been calculated using certain assumptions regarding the statistical properties of interest rates and exchange rates. One of these assumptions is that the variability of returns on various currency assets is time invariant. This assumption is tested in this paper using autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (ARCH) models. Using weekly aata for the period February 1982 to December 1991 for major reserve currencies, including the SDR, we find evidence that the variances of returns do vary over time (i.e., they do not exhibit stationarity) and that ARCH models that specify changing variances are superior to models that assume constant variance. By incorrectly assuming constant variability of returns, currency-asset allocations are not necessarily optimal and the measures of riskiness of a fixed-income portfolio may not be accurate. Furthermore, the error introduced by incorrectly assuming stationarity is smaller with the SDR than with any other national currency in the portfolio to be managed.

Suggested Citation

  • Tugrul Temel & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou, 1993. "Portfolio Performance of the SDR and Reserve Currencies: Tests Using the ArCH Methodology," IMF Working Papers 1993/010, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1993/010
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    Cited by:

    1. Shively, Gerald E., 2001. "Price thresholds, price volatility, and the private costs of investment in a developing country grain market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 399-414, August.
    2. Lam, K. & Chang, E. & Lee, M. C., 2002. "An empirical test of the variance gamma option pricing model," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 267-285, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; math; U.S. dollar; ARCH model; ARCH effect; ARCH specification; ARCH process; ARCH-family model; kurtosis statistic; Currencies; Return on investment; Gold; Exchange rates; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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