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The Output Decline in the Aftermath of Reform: The Cases of Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Romania

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
  • Mr. Eduardo Borensztein
  • Mr. Dimitri G Demekas

Abstract

This paper analyzes the declines in economic activity experienced by Bulgaria, the Czech and Slovak Federal Republic (CSFR), and Romania in the period since the initiation of market-oriented reforms in these countries. The paper reviews developments in the three countries and empirically investigates two questions that are key to the interpretation of the output decline: First, to what extent does the output fall reflect “structural change” (or a reallocation of resources across sectors) rather than a conventional recession? Second, to what extent have demand-side or supply-side forces been dominant in generating the output decline?

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Mr. Eduardo Borensztein & Mr. Dimitri G Demekas, 1992. "The Output Decline in the Aftermath of Reform: The Cases of Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Romania," IMF Working Papers 1992/059, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1992/059
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jitka Poměnková & Svatopluk Kapounek & Roman Maršálek, 2011. "Comparison of methodological approaches to identify economic activity regularities in transition economy," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 59(7), pages 283-292.
    2. Dani Rodrik, 1993. "Trade and Industrial Policy Reform in Developing Countries: A Review of Recent Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Martin Raiser, 1995. "“Transition is a bridge, therefore do not dwell upon it”1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 3(2), pages 215-246, June.
    4. Raiser, Martin & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 1993. "Output decline and recovery in Central Europe: the role of incentives before, during and after privatisation," Kiel Working Papers 601, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Dariusz K. Rosati, 1994. "Output decline during transition from plan to market: a reconsideration," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 2(4), pages 419-441, December.
    6. Jocelyn Horne, 1995. "The Economics of Transition and the Transition of Economics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(4), pages 379-392, December.
    7. Raiser, Martin, 1993. "Governing the transition to a market economy," Kiel Working Papers 592, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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