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Modelling the Yield Curve

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  • Mr. Mark P. Taylor

Abstract

We test and estimate a variety of alternative models of the yield curve, using weekly, high-quality U.K. data. We extend the Campbell-Shiller technique to the overlapping data case and apply it to reject the pure expectations hypothesis under rational expectations. We also find that risk measures, in the form of conditional interest rate volatility, are unable to explain the term premium. A simple, market segmentation approach is, however, moderately successful in explaining the term premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Mark P. Taylor, 1991. "Modelling the Yield Curve," IMF Working Papers 1991/134, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1991/134
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