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China: Macroeconomic Cycles in the 1980's

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  • Hoe Ee Khor

Abstract

This paper explores the links between reforms, macroeconomic management and the occurrence of macroeconomic instability in China during the last decade, drawing upon previous analytical work and also employing the “Granger causality” test. It is concluded that the cycles did not originate with the reforms; rather their characteristics were modified by structural changes in the economy. It is further argued that the incompleteness of reforms (which renders macroeconomic management difficult) had the effect of exacerbating the cycles by increasing their amplitude and frequency. Finally, results from the Granger tests suggest that broad money would be a good intermediate target for monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoe Ee Khor, 1991. "China: Macroeconomic Cycles in the 1980's," IMF Working Papers 1991/085, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1991/085
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    Cited by:

    1. Mookerjee, Rajen & Peebles, Gavin, 1998. "Endogenous money in China: Evidence and insights on recent policies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 139-158.
    2. Leong H. Liew, 1994. "Competitive Money Creation In China And In The Soviet Union," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 1-16, February.
    3. James Laurenceson & Corrine Dobson, "undated". "China’s business cycles since 1979: a chronology and comparative analysis," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 1705, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    4. Yu, Qiao, 1997. "Economic Fluctuation, Macro Control, and Monetary Policy in the Transitional Chinese Economy," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 180-195, October.
    5. R. Becker & Y. Wang, 2013. "Measuring the Chinese business cycle," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(28), pages 3988-4003, October.
    6. Koyin Chang & Dennis Wilson & Yung-Hsiang Ying & Yoonbai Kim, 2010. "The decomposition of disturbances to national output of China-the evidence of sectoral and regional shocks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(6), pages 747-757.
    7. Raiser, Martin, 1994. "Lessons for whom, from whom? The transition from socialism in China and Central Eastern Europe compared," Kiel Working Papers 630, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Laurenceson, James & Rodgers, Danielle, 2010. "China's macroeconomic volatility -- How important is the business cycle?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 324-333, June.

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