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Commodity Prices As a Leading Indicator of Inflation

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Commodity prices may be a leading indicator of inflation, because of the relative importance of flexible auction markets for the determination of these prices. Empirical tests using data for the large industrial countries as a group suggest that changes in commodity prices tend to lead those in consumer prices, and that the inclusion of commodity prices significantly improves the fit of regressions of a multi-country consumer price index. However, there does not appear to be a reliable long-run relationship between the level of commodity prices and the level of consumer prices.

Suggested Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 1988. "Commodity Prices As a Leading Indicator of Inflation," IMF Working Papers 1988/087, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1988/087
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    Cited by:

    1. Walter C. Labys & Alfred Maizels, 1990. "Commodity Price Fluctuations and Macro-economic Adjustments in the Developed Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-1990-088, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Richard A Hirth & Mark B Smith, 2004. "Inflationary Dynamics and the Angell-Johnson Proposals," Macroeconomics 0409009, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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