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Brazil: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Brazil

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has worsened Brazil’s longstanding vulnerabilities of low potential growth, high income inequality, and weak fiscal position. While the authorities mounted a rapid and effective response to support the economy and protect the poor and vulnerable, the virus outbreak is yet to be brought under control. Outlook and Risks. Real GDP is projected to contract by 5.8 percent in 2020 followed by a partial recovery to 2.8 percent in 2021. With weak domestic demand, inflation is likely to end 2020 substantially below target. Debt is projected to jump to 100 percent of GDP, due to a 10.6 percentage point deterioration in the primary deficit in 2020, and continue to rise over the next five years. The high level of debt exposes Brazil to confidence shocks. Securing congressional passage of structural reforms to raise potential growth remains challenging.

Suggested Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 2020. "Brazil: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Brazil," IMF Staff Country Reports 2020/311, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfscr:2020/311
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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=49927
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Kentikelenis & Thomas Stubbs, 2022. "Austerity Redux: The Post‐pandemic Wave of Budget Cuts and the Future of Global Public Health," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 13(1), pages 5-17, February.
    2. Amparo Ba'illo & Javier C'arcamo & Carlos Mora-Corral, 2021. "Extremal points of Lorenz curves and applications to inequality analysis," Papers 2103.03286, arXiv.org.
    3. Alessio Matiz & Franco Fabbro & Andrea Paschetto & Damiano Cantone & Anselmo Roberto Paolone & Cristiano Crescentini, 2020. "Positive Impact of Mindfulness Meditation on Mental Health of Female Teachers during the COVID-19 Outbreak in Italy," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-22, September.
    4. Irina Skuratovych & Nataliia Lytvyn & Iryna Panova & Ievgen Ovcharenko & Olena Hryhorevska, 2021. "Efficiency of using the potential of small business in ensuring sustainable economic growth," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 8(4), pages 742-756, June.

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