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El Salvador: Selected Issues

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This Selected Issues paper proposes a simple nowcast model for an early assessment of the Salvadorian economy. The exercise is based on a bridge model, which is one of the many tools available for nowcasting. For El Salvador, the bridge model exploits information for the period 2005–17 from a large set of variables that are published earlier and at higher frequency than the variable of interest, in this case quarterly GDP. The estimated GDP growth rate in the 4th quarter of 2017 is 2.4 percent year-over-year, leading to an average GDP growth rate of 2.3 percent in 2017. This is in line with the GDP growth implied by the official statistics released two months later, in March 23, 2018.

Suggested Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 2018. "El Salvador: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2018/152, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfscr:2018/152
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marta Guerriero, 2019. "The Labor Share of Income Around the World: Evidence from a Panel Dataset," ADB Institute Series on Development Economics, in: Gary Fields & Saumik Paul (ed.), Labor Income Share in Asia, chapter 0, pages 39-79, Springer.
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    3. Brent Neiman, 2014. "The Global Decline of the Labor Share," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 61-103.
    4. Ms. Kimberly Beaton & Ms. Svetlana Cerovic & Misael Galdamez & Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov & Franz Loyola & Zsoka Koczan & Mr. Bogdan Lissovolik & Mr. Jan Kees Martijn & Ms. Yulia Ustyugova & Joyce Wong, 2017. "Migration and Remittances in Latin America and the Caribbean: Engines of Growth and Macroeconomic Stabilizers?," IMF Working Papers 2017/144, International Monetary Fund.
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