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Guatemala: Selected Issues and Analytical Notes

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This Selected Issues paper estimates both Guatemala’s potential output and output gap using a wide range of econometric techniques. The analysis suggests that Guatemala’s potential output growth is about 3.5 percent for the whole sample period and that the output gap is almost closed. Results are highly robust among different methodologies. Among the methods used, several well-known time series filters and two different estimations of a state-space model are included. Additionally, a test for structural breaks in the series of potential GDP is presented. All methodologies conclude that the output gap at the end of 2012 is almost closed at -0.2 percent of potential GDP.

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  • International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Guatemala: Selected Issues and Analytical Notes," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/248, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfscr:2013/248
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mr. Anthony J. Pellechio & Mr. Johan Mathisen, 2006. "Using the Balance Sheet Approach in Surveillance: Framework, Data Sources, and Data Availability," IMF Working Papers 2006/100, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Charles Amo Yartey, 2012. "Barbados: Sectoral Balance Sheet Mismatches and Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities," IMF Working Papers 2012/031, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mr. Brad Setser & Nouriel Roubini & Mr. Christian Keller & Mr. Mark Allen & Mr. Christoph B. Rosenberg, 2002. "A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2002/210, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ms. Svetlana Cerovic & Jose Saboin, 2016. "Dominican Republic: Sectoral Financial Positions and Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities," IMF Working Papers 2016/208, International Monetary Fund.

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