IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfhtn/2016-002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How to Assess Fiscal Implications of Demographic Shifts: A Granular Approach

Author

Listed:
  • David Amaglobeli
  • Wei Shi

Abstract

Over the next few decades, the world will experience significant demographic shifts, with material fiscal implications. In many advanced and emerging market economies, aging populations will lead to higher spending on pensions and health care. Moreover, projected population dynamics will adversely affect growth and government revenues. Building on and extending a 2015 IMF Staff Discussion Note by Clements and others, this note presents a simple framework that can assist researchers in quantifying the effects of demographic changes resulting from population aging on government fiscal balances. It includes two country applications of the framework and an associated template. The note addresses several key questions: What are channels through which demographic changes could affect public finances? How can we quantify the fiscal impact of demographic changes? How can we tailor the assessment to country-specific circumstances?

Suggested Citation

  • David Amaglobeli & Wei Shi, 2016. "How to Assess Fiscal Implications of Demographic Shifts: A Granular Approach," IMF Fiscal Affairs Department 2016/002, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfhtn:2016/002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=44232
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Junlae Kim & Seiyong Kim, 2020. "The Impact of Population Characteristics and Government Budgets on the Sustainability of Public Buildings in Korea’s Regional Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-15, July.
    2. Szunomár, Ágnes, 2019. "A digitális nagy ugrás. Lassulás és modernizációs stratégiaváltás Kínában [The great digital leap. Deceleration and a change in modernisation strategy in China]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1312-1346.
    3. Werding, Martin & Läpple, Benjamin & Schirner, Sebastian, 2024. "Modellrechnungen für den Sechsten Tragfähigkeitsbericht des BMF," FiFo Reports - FiFo-Berichte 33, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    4. Mr. Fabien Gonguet & Klaus-Peter Hellwig, 2019. "Public Wealth in the United States," IMF Working Papers 2019/139, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Diego Wachs & Jorge Onrubia, 2021. "Automatic adjustment mechanisms in public pension reforms: Effects over fiscal sustainability, adequacy, and fairness," Working Papers 2021-05, FEDEA.
    6. Verico, Kiki, 2017. "Indonesia towards 2030 and beyond: A Long-Run International Trade Foresight," MPRA Paper 79530, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ms. Majdeline El Rayess & Avril Halstead & Jason Harris & Mr. John Ralyea & Alexander F. Tieman, 2019. "Indonesia's Public Wealth: A Balance Sheet Approach to Fiscal Policy Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2019/081, International Monetary Fund.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfhtn:2016/002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.